Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Benfica78.7%fair odds 1.27
Draw14.6%fair odds 6.86
Rio Ave6.7%fair odds 14.93
Expected goals2.58 – 0.64total 3.23
Likeliest score2–013.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Benfica ↓ · Rio Ave → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Benfica goals, columns Rio Ave goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.2%7.56
- 3–011.4%8.77
- 1–09.9%10.11
- 2–18.5%11.73
- 4–07.4%13.58
- 3–17.3%13.62
- 1–16.9%14.40
- 4–14.7%21.09
- 0–04.3%23.18
- 5–03.8%26.28
Winning margin
35.3%
Benfica by 3+
fair 2.83
22.3%
Benfica by 2
fair 4.49
21.1%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.73
14.6%
Draw
fair 6.86
5.0%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 19.98
1.4%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 72.24
0.3%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 324.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Benfica goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
Rio Ave goals
53%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 78.7% | 79.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 14.6% | 14.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Rio Ave win | 6.7% | 6.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 64.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.2% | 46.0% | -1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.58 | 2.65 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 0.64 | 0.67 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Benfica win78.7%1.27
- Draw14.6%6.86
- Rio Ave win6.7%14.93
- Double chance Benfica or draw93.3%1.07
- Double chance Benfica or Rio Ave85.4%1.17
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw21.3%4.70
- Draw no bet Benfica92.2%1.09
- Draw no bet Rio Ave7.8%12.76
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.6%1.60
- Over 3.540.4%2.48
- Over 4.522.4%4.46
- Under 1.516.4%6.09
- Under 2.537.4%2.67
- Under 3.559.6%1.68
Both teams to score
- Yes44.2%2.26
- No55.8%1.79
- Yes and over 2.537.3%2.68
- Benfica win and yes30.5%3.28
- Draw and yes10.3%9.75
- Rio Ave win and yes3.5%28.87
Team goals
- Benfica over 0.592.5%1.08
- Benfica over 1.572.9%1.37
- Benfica over 2.547.7%2.09
- Rio Ave over 0.547.5%2.11
- Rio Ave over 1.513.7%7.32
- Rio Ave over 2.52.8%36.12
- Benfica clean sheet52.5%1.90
- Rio Ave clean sheet7.5%13.25
- Benfica win to nil48.2%2.07
- Rio Ave win to nil3.2%30.92
Handicap
- Benfica −1.557.6%1.74
- Benfica −2.535.3%2.83
- Rio Ave +1.542.4%2.36
- Rio Ave +2.564.7%1.55
- Rio Ave −1.51.7%59.10
- Benfica +1.598.3%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored53
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right66.0%
BTTS called right54.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 37.3% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.2% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.9% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.0% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 53 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5519 | 0.5199 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 45.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 53 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.