Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 25). Benfica had 12.1 days of rest, Santa Clara 6 and had to travel 1,445 km.
Away travel1,445 kmRest days12.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Benfica80%
Draw14%
Santa Clara6%
Benfica80%
Draw14%
Santa Clara6%
Benfica80%
Draw14%
Santa Clara6%
Benfica74%
Draw17%
Santa Clara9%
Benfica80%
Draw14%
Santa Clara6%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 81
Team strength
Benfica
Santa Clara
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
81
AttackIn forecast
29
81
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaSanta Clara
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
100%
Scored inContext
25%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.75
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
39%
On target shareContext
23%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
71%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
2%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.33
Shots allowedContext
7.25
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.67
BlocksContext
1.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
92%
Save rateContext
83%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
463
PassesContext
394
396
Accurate passesContext
329
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
16.67
FoulsContext
14.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.75
3.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
90%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.75
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
29%
On target shareContext
23%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
2%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.70
Shots allowedContext
7.25
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.90
BlocksContext
1.33
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
88%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
465
PassesContext
394
390
Accurate passesContext
329
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.50
FoulsContext
15.00
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,445 km2,847 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,445 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 2,847 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
44Tomás Araújo
21A. Schjelderup
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
8F. Aursnes
14V. Pavlidis
9F. Ivanović
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
32MT
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
64Paulo Victor
6Adriano
35Serginho
42Lucas Soares
3Matheus Pereira
10Gabriel Silva
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Santa Clara · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Benfica wins0 draws0 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game2.75 – 0.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 15 Feb 2025Santa Clara0–1Benfica
- 14 Sep 2024Benfica4–1Santa Clara
- 27 May 2023Benfica3–0Santa Clara
- 21 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–3Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.25 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 25% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Benfica | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.25 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 25% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.50 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.67 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 5.75 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Benfica | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.33 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.50 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 5.14
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 63%
Fouls26.4league 27.9
Penalties0.26league 0.34
Home wins44%league 31%
Benfica13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- D10 May 25H · Sporting CP1–14
- W6 Apr 25A · FC Porto4–11
- W2 Feb 25A · Estrela3–22
- W23 Sep 24A · Boavista3–00
- W27 Apr 24H · SC Braga3–12
Santa Clara3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 4.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W7 Dec 24H · Rio Ave1–02
- W11 Aug 24A · Estoril4–13
- L9 Sep 22A · Guimaraes0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Santa Clara4 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
