Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Benfica79.5%fair odds 1.26
Draw14.1%fair odds 7.07
Santa Clara6.3%fair odds 15.83
Expected goals2.62 – 0.63total 3.25
Likeliest score2–013.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Benfica ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Benfica goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.3%7.50
- 3–011.6%8.59
- 1–09.8%10.16
- 2–18.4%11.93
- 4–07.6%13.12
- 3–17.3%13.67
- 1–16.7%14.84
- 4–14.8%20.88
- 0–04.2%23.65
- 5–04.0%25.06
Winning margin
36.4%
Benfica by 3+
fair 2.75
22.3%
Benfica by 2
fair 4.48
20.9%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.79
14.1%
Draw
fair 7.07
4.8%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 21.05
1.3%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 77.74
0.3%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 359.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Benfica goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Santa Clara goals
53%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 79.5% | 80.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 14.1% | 13.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 6.3% | 6.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 65.4% | -2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 43.6% | 45.4% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.62 | 2.71 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.63 | 0.66 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Benfica win79.5%1.26
- Draw14.1%7.07
- Santa Clara win6.3%15.83
- Double chance Benfica or draw93.7%1.07
- Double chance Benfica or Santa Clara85.9%1.16
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw20.5%4.89
- Draw no bet Benfica92.6%1.08
- Draw no bet Santa Clara7.4%13.60
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.583.8%1.19
- Over 2.563.0%1.59
- Over 3.540.8%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.39
- Under 1.516.2%6.18
- Under 2.537.0%2.70
- Under 3.559.2%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes43.6%2.29
- No56.4%1.77
- Yes and over 2.536.9%2.71
- Benfica win and yes30.4%3.29
- Draw and yes9.9%10.09
- Santa Clara win and yes3.3%30.75
Team goals
- Benfica over 0.592.7%1.08
- Benfica over 1.573.6%1.36
- Benfica over 2.548.6%2.06
- Santa Clara over 0.546.7%2.14
- Santa Clara over 1.513.1%7.61
- Santa Clara over 2.52.6%38.43
- Benfica clean sheet53.3%1.87
- Santa Clara clean sheet7.3%13.72
- Benfica win to nil49.1%2.04
- Santa Clara win to nil3.1%32.65
Handicap
- Benfica −1.558.7%1.70
- Benfica −2.536.4%2.75
- Santa Clara +1.541.3%2.42
- Santa Clara +2.563.6%1.57
- Santa Clara −1.51.6%63.90
- Benfica +1.598.4%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right48.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 37.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 45.3% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 66.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.6% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4859 | 0.4526 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.8% | 47.6% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Estoril 0–1 Santa Clara47·27·26
- ✗Santa Clara 0–0 Estrela50·27·23
- ✗Rio Ave 2–2 SC Braga22·25·52
- ✓Alverca 1–2 Benfica13·21·67
- ✗Tondela 2–2 Estoril35·29·37
- ✗Sporting CP 1–2 FC Porto55·24·21
- ✓AVS 0–1 Famalicao27·28·45
- ✗Guimaraes 1–1 Arouca54·25·21
- ✗Casa Pia 0–2 Nacional49·27·24
- ✓GIL Vicente 2–0 Moreirense37·28·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.