Bologna vs Torino – 29 Oct 2025

Serie A Gameweek 9 Wed, Oct 29 · 19:45 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 7th · 14 pts · 8 played WDWWD

0–0Full time

Torino 12th · 11 pts · 8 played LLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 42). Bologna had 3.1 days of rest, Torino 3.3 and had to travel 295 km.

Away travel295 kmRest days3.1 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bologna53%

Draw26%

Torino21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.95

Bologna54%

Draw25%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Bologna53%

Draw26%

Torino21%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.94

Bologna46%

Draw28%

Torino27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.06

Bologna53%

Draw25%

Torino22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Over 2.5 48% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 46

Team strength

Bologna

Torino

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

35 AttackIn forecast 39

48 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Torino

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

75% Scored inContext 63%

38% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.25 ShotsContext 11.75

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63

33% On target shareContext 39%

7.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.38

63% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.00 Shots allowedContext 14.75

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.33 BlocksContext 3.38

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 64%

57% PossessionIn forecast 44%

415 PassesContext 362

343 Accurate passesContext 293

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.75 FoulsContext 13.63

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 11.50

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 39%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

63% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.78

9.90 Shots allowedContext 14.30

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.43 BlocksContext 3.10

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

72% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 46%

413 PassesContext 377

342 Accurate passesContext 307

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.60 FoulsContext 13.20

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,715 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel295 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct	3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,715 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

22C. Lykogiannis 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

6N. Moro 19L. Ferguson

28N. Cambiaghi 21J. Odgaard 10F. Bernardeschi

24T. Dallinga

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1A. Paleari(G)

20V. Lazaro 23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 61A. Tamèze 16M. Pedersen

66G. Gineitis 8I. Ilić 22C. Casadei

19C. Adams 26C. Ngonge

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Torino+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.33

Torino · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Torino
Fiorentina	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Bologna wins2 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.75 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 38%

14 Feb 2025Bologna3–2Torino
21 Dec 2024Torino0–2Bologna
3 May 2024Torino0–0Bologna
27 Nov 2023Bologna2–0Torino
6 Mar 2023Torino1–0Bologna
6 Nov 2022Bologna2–1Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	1.00
Conceded per game	0.88	1.75
Match goals	2.50	2.75	2.58
Over 1.5	63%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	48%
Over 3.5	38%	25%
Both teams scored	38%	38%	50%
Clean sheets	38%	38%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Bologna	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	1.75
Match goals	2.50	2.75	2.58
Over 1.5	70%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	38%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	38%
Failed to score	20%	38%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	5.88	4.33
Corners conceded	3.25	5.67
Match total	9.13	10.00	9.08
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.25	1.88
Opponent cards	2.88	1.75
Match total	5.13	3.63	4.00
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	38% 3/8

	Bologna	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.00
Corners conceded	4.40	4.75
Match total	10.20	8.75	9.08
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.70
Opponent cards	3.00	1.60
Match total	5.60	3.30	4.00
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.50league 3.91

Red cards0.28league 0.12

Cards 5+76%league 39%

Fouls27.9league 25.7

Penalties0.15league 0.29

Home wins39%league 39%

Bologna5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L30 Dec 24H · Verona2–33
D20 May 24H · Juventus3–31
D24 Sep 23H · Napoli0–04
D26 Feb 22A · Salernitana1–13
L18 Sep 21A · Inter1–63

Torino5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Sep 25A · AS Roma1–03
W25 Oct 24H · Como1–03
W16 Feb 24H · Lecce2–01
L10 Feb 23A · AC Milan0–14
L10 Sep 22A · Inter0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.