Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 64 pts · 28 played
LWWWW
0–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 49 pts · 28 played
WDDDW
Borussia Dortmund51.6%fair odds 1.94
Draw22.9%fair odds 4.38
Bayer Leverkusen25.5%fair odds 3.92
Expected goals1.97 – 1.34total 3.32
Likeliest score1–110.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%9.88
- 2–19.5%10.54
- 2–07.1%14.17
- 1–06.6%15.05
- 1–26.5%15.48
- 2–26.4%15.69
- 3–16.2%16.02
- 3–04.6%21.53
- 0–14.4%22.93
- 3–24.2%23.85
Winning margin
14.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 6.92
15.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 6.34
21.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.68
22.9%
Draw
fair 4.38
14.4%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 6.94
7.3%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 13.67
3.8%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 26.23
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 51.6% | 50.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.4% | -1.5 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 25.5% | 25.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 57.4% | +7.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.2% | 58.8% | +5.4 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.97 | 1.79 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.34 | 1.20 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win51.6%1.94
- Draw22.9%4.38
- Bayer Leverkusen win25.5%3.92
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw74.5%1.34
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Bayer Leverkusen77.1%1.30
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw48.4%2.07
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund66.9%1.49
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen33.1%3.02
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.9%1.18
- Over 2.564.4%1.55
- Over 3.542.3%2.36
- Over 4.524.1%4.16
- Under 1.515.1%6.60
- Under 2.535.6%2.81
- Under 3.557.7%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes64.2%1.56
- No35.8%2.79
- Yes and over 2.554.0%1.85
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes29.7%3.37
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes15.8%6.34
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.586.1%1.16
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.558.7%1.70
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.531.6%3.16
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.573.9%1.35
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.538.9%2.57
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.515.3%6.53
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet26.1%3.83
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet13.9%7.20
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil22.0%4.56
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil9.8%10.24
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.530.2%3.31
- Borussia Dortmund −2.514.5%6.92
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.569.8%1.43
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.585.5%1.17
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.511.1%8.99
- Borussia Dortmund +1.588.9%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored253
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right60.9%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.3% | 35.3% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 55.2% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.9% | 77.3% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 206 of 253 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5540 | 0.5512 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.3% | 56.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 206 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 253 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.