Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 64 pts · 28 played
LWWWW
0–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 49 pts · 28 played
WDDDW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund had 6.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund52%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen26%
Borussia Dortmund48%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen26%
Borussia Dortmund52%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen25%
Borussia Dortmund43%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen33%
Borussia Dortmund50%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen25%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 74
Team strength
Borussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
69
AttackIn forecast
87
80
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
100%
Scored inContext
86%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.89
ShotsContext
13.61
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.46
Shots in the boxContext
8.32
74%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.52
10.21
Shots allowedContext
11.54
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
2.92
BlocksContext
2.88
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
73%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
482
PassesContext
601
406
Accurate passesContext
531
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.00
FoulsContext
8.93
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
10.61
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
13.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
31%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
77%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.50
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.25
BlocksContext
2.30
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
69%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
459
PassesContext
531
381
Accurate passesContext
459
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.00
FoulsContext
8.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km655 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 655 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
10J. Brandt
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
21Fábio Silva
9S. Guirassy
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-1
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 0.93
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H | L 1–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 61 of 81 · 2.26 per game | 49 of 81 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws2 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game2.11 – 1.78
Over 2.556%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 11 May 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–4Borussia Dortmund
- 10 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 3 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 29 Jan 2023Bayer Leverkusen0–2Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.46 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 61% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 9.04 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.82 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 5.03 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.80 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.75
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 20.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins38%league 44%
Borussia Dortmund12 with this referee
Record6-2-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W11 May 25A · Bayer Leverkusen4–22
- L8 Mar 25H · FC Augsburg0–11
- L27 Apr 24A · RB Leipzig1–42
- W9 Mar 24A · Werder Bremen2–13
- W13 Jan 24A · SV Darmstadt 983–03
Bayer Leverkusen10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L1 Nov 25A · Bayern München0–31
- W12 Sep 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–15
- L11 May 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–40
- W30 Mar 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–10
- D27 Jan 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund28 games · scored 60 · conceded 28
7
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
15
3
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
18
9
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen28 games · scored 58 · conceded 39
9
4
0-15
10
6
16-30
15
13
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
9
6
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
