Bundesliga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 20 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel80 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
Borussia Mönchengladbach—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 5 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
69 AttackIn forecast 34
80 DefenceIn forecast 21
61 Form indexContext 7
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.49
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
83% Scored inContext 67%
67% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.17 ShotsContext 15.17
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40
34% On target shareContext 30%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.83
73% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 9%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00
11.67 Shots allowedContext 18.17
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.83
2.80 BlocksContext 3.20
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
78% Save rateContext 62%
55% PossessionIn forecast 48%
530 PassesContext 404
450 Accurate passesContext 328
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.46
11.17 FoulsContext 14.83
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.83
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.26
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.70 ShotsContext 13.50
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
39% On target shareContext 30%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.80
72% Box shareContext 65%
13% ConversionContext 10%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.78
11.20 Shots allowedContext 15.10
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.10
2.78 BlocksContext 2.88
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
77% Save rateContext 68%
54% PossessionIn forecast 50%
530 PassesContext 432
454 Accurate passesContext 356
86% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.63
10.90 FoulsContext 12.60
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km491 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
  • L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km80 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways491 km342 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander
36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Borussia Mönchengladbach Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.33
Conceded
3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundBorussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim W 3–2 A L 1–2 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 3 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Borussia Dortmund
  • 19 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 20 Apr 2025Borussia Dortmund3–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • 7 Dec 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 13 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 25 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundBorussia MönchengladbachForecast
Scored per game 1.831.33
Conceded per game 0.673.33
Match goals 2.504.67
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%50%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 67%0%
Failed to score 17%33%
Games66
Borussia DortmundBorussia MönchengladbachForecast
Scored per game 1.901.40
Conceded per game 0.902.30
Match goals 2.803.70
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%50%
Clean sheets 50%30%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundBorussia MönchengladbachLeague
Corners
Corners won4.836.00
Corners conceded4.675.50
Match total9.5011.5010.72
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.533% 2/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.673.00
Opponent cards2.001.83
Match total4.674.833.51
Over 3.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 4.550% 3/633% 2/6
Borussia DortmundBorussia MönchengladbachLeague
Corners
Corners won5.804.60
Corners conceded4.505.30
Match total10.309.9010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.203.10
Opponent cards1.502.10
Match total3.705.203.51
Over 3.550% 5/1090% 9/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
6 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 7 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3 1 0-15
1 7 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg SV Elversberg Mar 2014:30 FSV Mainz 05 FC Augsburg Mar 2014:30 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 2014:30 1899 Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 2014:30 VfB Stuttgart FC Schalke 04 Mar 2014:30 RB Leipzig Union Berlin Mar 2014:30 Hamburger SV Werder Bremen Mar 2014:30 SC Paderborn 07 Bayer Leverkusen Mar 2014:30 1.FC Köln Bayern München Mar 2014:30