SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel156 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
SC Freiburg—%
Draw—%
SV Elversberg—%
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
Forecast from 5 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and SV Elversberg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
SC Freiburg
+0.35
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.52xG against1.17
-
Trend
SC Freiburg
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
SC Freiburg
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
SV Elversberg
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
SV Elversberg
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
SV Elversberg
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
SC Freiburg
+0.35
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.52xG against1.17
-
Trend
SC Freiburg
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
SC Freiburg
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
SV Elversberg
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
SV Elversberg
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Team strength
SC FreiburgSV Elversberg
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
63
AttackIn forecast
44
73
DefenceIn forecast
37
78
Form indexContext
60
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSV Elversberg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgSV Elversberg
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.00
ShotsContext
11.17
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
63%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
18%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.20
9.17
Shots allowedContext
22.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.33
BlocksContext
8.50
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
64%
Save rateContext
59%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
465
PassesContext
382
390
Accurate passesContext
303
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.50
FoulsContext
11.67
14.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.88
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
37%
On target shareContext
38%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
64%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
21%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.00
Shots allowedContext
16.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.80
BlocksContext
6.33
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
60%
Save rateContext
59%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
445
PassesContext
387
373
Accurate passesContext
309
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.80
FoulsContext
11.50
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
WWDWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,279 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
SV Elversberg
WLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel156 km222 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
SV Elversberg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 156 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,279 km | 222 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
42Keisuke Goto
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
SV Elversberg
Last XI · not confirmed
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther
31M. Rohr
19L. Pinckert
30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba
43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher
10N. Darvich
25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SV Elversberg
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
SV Elversberg · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| FC Schalke 04 | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.83 | |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Freiburg | SV Elversberg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.83 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 11.67 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 4.00 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| SC Freiburg | SV Elversberg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.20 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
4
2
76-90
SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
8
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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