Bundesliga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 20 · 14:30 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel150 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
RB Leipzig—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 5 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RB LeipzigUnion Berlin
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
76 AttackIn forecast 42
53 DefenceIn forecast 41
78 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RB LeipzigUnion Berlin
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83
2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09
+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
83% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.67 ShotsContext 12.83
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75
37% On target shareContext 35%
12.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
69% Box shareContext 64%
15% ConversionContext 7%
1.25 OffsidesContext 2.60
17.00 Shots allowedContext 15.67
7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
4.00 BlocksContext 4.20
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40
77% Save rateContext 56%
53% PossessionIn forecast 44%
508 PassesContext 359
441 Accurate passesContext 268
87% Pass accuracyContext 75%
7.11 Team ratingContext 6.58
9.83 FoulsContext 11.67
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.40 ShotsContext 12.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
36% On target shareContext 38%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
69% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 12%
1.29 OffsidesContext 2.43
14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.50
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.00 BlocksContext 4.13
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
69% Save rateContext 57%
54% PossessionIn forecast 45%
508 PassesContext 372
443 Accurate passesContext 285
87% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.74
9.30 FoulsContext 10.30
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel150 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km150 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways693 km957 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
4.67
Conceded
0.00
Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentRB LeipzigUnion Berlin
Bayern München L 1–6 A L 0–7 A
Eintracht Frankfurt W 6–0 H D 3–3 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–2 A L 0–4 A
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 RB Leipzig wins2 draws5 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%
  • 24 Apr 2026RB Leipzig3–1Union Berlin
  • 12 Dec 2025Union Berlin3–1RB Leipzig
  • 1 Feb 2025Union Berlin0–0RB Leipzig
  • 14 Sep 2024RB Leipzig0–0Union Berlin
  • 4 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Union Berlin
  • 3 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–3RB Leipzig

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 2.670.83
Conceded per game 1.832.83
Match goals 4.503.67
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 33%33%
Clean sheets 50%33%
Failed to score 17%50%
Games66
RB LeipzigUnion BerlinForecast
Scored per game 2.101.50
Conceded per game 2.002.30
Match goals 4.103.80
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 60%80%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.00
Corners conceded6.835.83
Match total12.339.8310.72
Over 8.5100% 6/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.567% 4/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.002.50
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total2.504.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/683% 5/6
Over 4.517% 1/633% 2/6
RB LeipzigUnion BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.10
Corners conceded5.706.50
Match total10.5010.6010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 10.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.302.20
Opponent cards1.301.90
Match total2.604.103.51
Over 3.530% 3/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg SV Elversberg Mar 2014:30 FSV Mainz 05 FC Augsburg Mar 2014:30 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Mönchengladbach Mar 2014:30 1899 Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt Mar 2014:30 VfB Stuttgart FC Schalke 04 Mar 2014:30 RB Leipzig Union Berlin Mar 2014:30 Hamburger SV Werder Bremen Mar 2014:30 SC Paderborn 07 Bayer Leverkusen Mar 2014:30 1.FC Köln Bayern München Mar 2014:30