Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 67 pts · 32 played
WLLWL
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 43 pts · 32 played
DWLDL
Borussia Dortmund65.1%fair odds 1.54
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.12
Eintracht Frankfurt15.4%fair odds 6.49
Expected goals2.31 – 1.05total 3.36
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.27
- 2–09.3%10.78
- 1–18.9%11.25
- 1–07.6%13.17
- 3–17.5%13.36
- 3–07.1%14.02
- 2–25.1%19.57
- 1–24.4%22.58
- 4–14.3%23.16
- 4–04.1%24.31
Winning margin
23.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 4.26
19.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.15
22.2%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.51
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.12
9.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 10.17
4.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 24.86
1.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 65.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
10%0
23%1
26%2
20%3
20%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 65.1% | 63.3% | +1.8 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 21.1% | -1.6 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 15.4% | 15.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 58.7% | +6.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 54.3% | +4.7 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.31 | 2.10 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.05 | 0.95 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win65.1%1.54
- Draw19.5%5.12
- Eintracht Frankfurt win15.4%6.49
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw84.6%1.18
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Eintracht Frankfurt80.5%1.24
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw34.9%2.86
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund80.9%1.24
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt19.1%5.23
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.3%1.17
- Over 2.565.2%1.53
- Over 3.543.2%2.31
- Over 4.524.8%4.04
- Under 1.514.7%6.78
- Under 2.534.8%2.87
- Under 3.556.8%1.76
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.70
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.550.1%2.00
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes34.0%2.94
- Draw and yes15.6%6.41
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes9.4%10.67
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.590.0%1.11
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.567.1%1.49
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.540.6%2.46
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.565.0%1.54
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.528.2%3.54
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.59.0%11.16
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet35.0%2.86
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet10.0%10.04
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil31.1%3.22
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil6.0%16.60
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.542.9%2.33
- Borussia Dortmund −2.523.5%4.26
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.557.1%1.75
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.576.5%1.31
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.55.6%17.98
- Borussia Dortmund +1.594.4%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored288
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right61.8%
BTTS called right59.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 91 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 44 | 64.7% | 65.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 288 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 288 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.