Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 67 pts · 32 played
WLLWL
3–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 43 pts · 32 played
DWLDL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund had 5.1 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 6.2 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days5.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Dortmund65%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt15%
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt15%
Borussia Dortmund66%
Draw19%
Eintracht Frankfurt15%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt21%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Draw21%
Eintracht Frankfurt16%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 48
Team strength
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
69
AttackIn forecast
54
80
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
94%
Scored inContext
91%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.63
ShotsContext
11.72
4.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.53
34%
On target shareContext
39%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
74%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.95
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.25
Shots allowedContext
12.31
3.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
2.96
BlocksContext
3.10
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
73%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
484
PassesContext
492
409
Accurate passesContext
415
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.22
FoulsContext
9.63
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.47
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
30%
On target shareContext
38%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
78%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.57
BlocksContext
3.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
70%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
477
PassesContext
521
402
Accurate passesContext
454
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.40
FoulsContext
8.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km504 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 160 km | 504 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
14M. Beier
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
40Samuele Inacio
10J. Brandt
9S. Guirassy
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
18M. Dahoud
15E. Skhiri
8F. Chaïbi
42C. Uzun
20R. Doan
25A. Kalimuendo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-2-2
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 0.88
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.19points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-5
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 2.19
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 4–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–6 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 66 of 93 · 2.13 per game | 42 of 93 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game2.78 – 1.56
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 9 Jan 2026Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 17 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Borussia Dortmund
- 24 Aug 2024Borussia Dortmund2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17 Mar 2024Borussia Dortmund3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Oct 2023Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 22 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund4–0Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 3.66 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 66% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 72% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 9% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.70 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.62 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.17 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 12/30 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 9/30 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.81 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 18/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 11.00 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.72
Red cards0.06league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls24.6league 20.2
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins52%league 43%
Borussia Dortmund1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W7 Oct 23H · Union Berlin4–21
Eintracht Frankfurt1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W28 Aug 22A · Werder Bremen4–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund32 games · scored 65 · conceded 32
9
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
16
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
20
11
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt32 games · scored 57 · conceded 60
4
8
0-15
11
8
16-30
11
7
31-45
11
9
46-60
9
9
61-75
11
19
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
