Bundesliga Gameweek 13 Sat, Dec 12 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel427 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
FC Augsburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundFC Augsburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
69 AttackIn forecast 72
80 DefenceIn forecast 23
61 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundFC Augsburg
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
83% Scored inContext 100%
67% Clean sheetsContext 17%
15.17 ShotsContext 15.67
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
34% On target shareContext 45%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
73% Box shareContext 72%
12% ConversionContext 17%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75
11.67 Shots allowedContext 21.83
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
2.80 BlocksContext 6.17
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
78% Save rateContext 70%
55% PossessionIn forecast 42%
530 PassesContext 372
450 Accurate passesContext 288
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.01
11.17 FoulsContext 9.83
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.70 ShotsContext 15.10
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
39% On target shareContext 42%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
72% Box shareContext 72%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.63 OffsidesContext 1.88
11.20 Shots allowedContext 19.20
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
2.78 BlocksContext 5.50
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
77% Save rateContext 71%
54% PossessionIn forecast 41%
530 PassesContext 356
454 Accurate passesContext 274
86% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.95
10.90 FoulsContext 9.20
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km51 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel427 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 23Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km427 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways51 km355 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundFC Augsburg
Werder Bremen D 2–2 H L 2–3 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws2 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 10%
  • 14 Mar 2026Borussia Dortmund2–0FC Augsburg
  • 31 Oct 2025FC Augsburg0–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 8 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund0–1FC Augsburg
  • 26 Oct 2024FC Augsburg2–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 4 May 2024Borussia Dortmund5–1FC Augsburg
  • 16 Dec 2023FC Augsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 1.832.67
Conceded per game 0.672.00
Match goals 2.504.67
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%83%
Both teams scored 33%83%
Clean sheets 67%17%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
Borussia DortmundFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 1.902.30
Conceded per game 0.901.90
Match goals 2.804.20
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 50%90%
Over 3.5 40%80%
Both teams scored 40%80%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.836.00
Corners conceded4.676.83
Match total9.5012.8310.72
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 10.533% 2/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards2.671.83
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total4.673.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.550% 3/617% 1/6
Borussia DortmundFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won5.805.80
Corners conceded4.506.10
Match total10.3011.9010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards1.501.70
Match total3.703.303.51
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Bayer Leverkusen Dec 1214:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1214:30 FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg Dec 1214:30 Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg Dec 1214:30 1899 Hoffenheim Bayern München Dec 1214:30 VfB Stuttgart Union Berlin Dec 1214:30 Hamburger SV FC Schalke 04 Dec 1214:30 SC Paderborn 07 SV Elversberg Dec 1214:30 1.FC Köln RB Leipzig Dec 1214:30