Bundesliga Gameweek 13 Sat, Dec 12 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel234 kmRest days1.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Draw—%
Bayern München—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sinsheim)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

1899 HoffenheimBayern München
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
46 AttackIn forecast 96
43 DefenceIn forecast 90
15 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 HoffenheimBayern München
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 3.57
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
100% Scored inContext 83%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.83 ShotsContext 24.17
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33
30% On target shareContext 43%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
61% Box shareContext 61%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.67
13.50 Shots allowedContext 7.67
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
4.33 BlocksContext 3.00
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
52% Save rateContext 75%
57% PossessionIn forecast 69%
499 PassesContext 706
405 Accurate passesContext 635
81% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.39
13.33 FoulsContext 10.50
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.60 ShotsContext 22.80
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
28% On target shareContext 43%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
62% Box shareContext 59%
8% ConversionContext 16%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.90
12.90 Shots allowedContext 8.10
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
4.10 BlocksContext 3.50
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
50% Save rateContext 70%
59% PossessionIn forecast 68%
515 PassesContext 693
426 Accurate passesContext 625
83% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.30
14.00 FoulsContext 8.60
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest1.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,055 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
Bayern München
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel234 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 30Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match1.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km234 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,055 km1,224 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.33
Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent1899 HoffenheimBayern München
VfB Stuttgart W 2–1 H W 5–1 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 1899 Hoffenheim wins2 draws7 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.80 – 3.10 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 8 Feb 2026Bayern München5–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 20 Sep 20251899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayern München
  • 17 May 20251899 Hoffenheim0–4Bayern München
  • 15 Jan 2025Bayern München5–01899 Hoffenheim
  • 18 May 20241899 Hoffenheim4–2Bayern München
  • 12 Jan 2024Bayern München3–01899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.833.67
Conceded per game 2.330.83
Match goals 4.174.50
Over 1.5 100%83%
Over 2.5 100%83%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 100%67%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.403.60
Conceded per game 2.300.90
Match goals 3.704.50
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 60%70%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.679.40
Corners conceded4.673.20
Match total11.3412.6010.72
Over 8.5100% 6/6100% 5/5
Over 9.583% 5/6100% 5/5
Over 10.567% 4/6100% 5/5
Cards
Cards2.170.83
Opponent cards0.672.17
Match total2.843.003.51
Over 3.533% 2/650% 3/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
1899 HoffenheimBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.108.44
Corners conceded4.203.78
Match total11.3012.2210.72
Over 8.5100% 10/10100% 9/9
Over 9.590% 9/1078% 7/9
Over 10.570% 7/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.701.00
Opponent cards1.401.90
Match total4.102.903.51
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Bayer Leverkusen Dec 1214:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1214:30 FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg Dec 1214:30 Borussia Dortmund FC Augsburg Dec 1214:30 1899 Hoffenheim Bayern München Dec 1214:30 VfB Stuttgart Union Berlin Dec 1214:30 Hamburger SV FC Schalke 04 Dec 1214:30 SC Paderborn 07 SV Elversberg Dec 1214:30 1.FC Köln RB Leipzig Dec 1214:30