UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Wed, Dec 9 · 20:00 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Inter 29th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel685 kmRest days4.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
Inter—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 24 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Inter. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundInter
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
69 AttackIn forecast 91
80 DefenceIn forecast 73
61 Form indexContext 76
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundInter
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00
1.81 xGVia Att/Def —
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.50 ShotsContext 24.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
37% On target shareContext 33%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 16.50
58% Box shareContext 66%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.00 BlocksContext 3.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
78% Save rateContext 64%
52% PossessionIn forecast 59%
549 PassesContext 533
483 Accurate passesContext 488
88% Pass accuracyContext 92%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.76
11.50 FoulsContext 8.00
8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.73
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
80% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.70 ShotsContext 21.00
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.20
39% On target shareContext 34%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 14.80
72% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.88
11.20 Shots allowedContext 11.40
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
2.78 BlocksContext 2.80
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
77% Save rateContext 64%
54% PossessionIn forecast 61%
530 PassesContext 586
454 Accurate passesContext 529
86% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.99 Team ratingContext 7.05
10.90 FoulsContext 8.70
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km51 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
Inter
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel685 km1,082 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Bologna3–11.9 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Club Brugge KV3–41.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Parma3–02.6 xPts
  • D19 SepA · AS Roma2–21.2 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Dec3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km685 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways51 km1,082 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.83.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Inter Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs Bologna (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Inter Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00
Inter · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Borussia Dortmund wins0 draws1 Inter wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 28 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund0–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundInterForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 1.503.00
Match goals 3.005.00
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Borussia DortmundInterForecast
Scored per game 1.902.80
Conceded per game 0.901.80
Match goals 2.804.60
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%90%
Over 3.5 40%70%
Both teams scored 40%80%
Clean sheets 50%20%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundInterLeague
Corners
Corners won9.007.50
Corners conceded5.503.50
Match total14.5011.009.71
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.50
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.005.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Borussia DortmundInterLeague
Corners
Corners won5.806.00
Corners conceded4.503.20
Match total10.309.209.71
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.80
Opponent cards1.501.90
Match total3.703.703.80
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Inter2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
3 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
5 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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