Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 25 pts · 25 played
DLLWL
2–0Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 24 pts · 25 played
WLWWD
Our take
Borussia Mönchengladbach were slight favourites.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 30). Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 5.2 and had to travel 357 km.
Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach52%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli23%
Borussia Mönchengladbach51%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach51%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli23%
Borussia Mönchengladbach44%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli29%
Borussia Mönchengladbach51%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 89
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachFC St. Pauli
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
34
AttackIn forecast
20
21
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachFC St. Pauli
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
60%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.04
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.46
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.92
Shots in the boxContext
5.96
67%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.53
13.96
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.28
BlocksContext
3.30
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
69%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
426
PassesContext
416
353
Accurate passesContext
327
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.36
FoulsContext
9.80
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
9.88
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.90
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
63%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.60
Shots allowedContext
10.70
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.44
4.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
75%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
421
PassesContext
373
347
Accurate passesContext
285
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.70
FoulsContext
9.30
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,002 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel357 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Mar | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,002 km | 968 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
6Y. Engelhardt
7K. Stöger
29J. Scally
38A. Bolin
36Wael Mohya
15H. Tabaković
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
15Tomoya Ando
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
21L. Ritzka
7J. Irvine
8E. Smith
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.75
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-9
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 22 of 72 · 0.92 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 1 Nov 2025FC St. Pauli0–4Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 6 Apr 2025FC St. Pauli1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 24 Nov 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.84 | 2.52 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 52% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.40 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.54 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 11/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 9/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 6/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 8/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 8/25 | 24% 6/25 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 9.20 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.72
Red cards0.24league 0.17
Cards 5+49%league 38%
Fouls22.5league 20.6
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins55%league 45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 with this referee
Record2-4-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D5 Oct 25H · SC Freiburg0–03
- W14 Dec 24H · Holstein Kiel4–11
- W28 Sep 24H · Union Berlin1–03
- L18 May 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–42
- D19 Aug 23A · FC Augsburg4–42
FC St. PauliNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach25 games · scored 28 · conceded 43
3
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
7
8
61-75
9
9
76-90
FC St. Pauli25 games · scored 23 · conceded 40
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
7
9
31-45
5
10
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
8
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
