Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
15th · 30 pts · 29 played
LWDDL
1–1Full time
FSV Mainz 05
10th · 33 pts · 29 played
DWWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8.2 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 186 km.
Away travel186 kmRest days8.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0536%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0545%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
Draw28%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 52
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
34
AttackIn forecast
68
21
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
62%
Scored inContext
66%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.24
ShotsContext
10.83
4.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.59
67%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.68
14.03
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.28
BlocksContext
4.14
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
70%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
426
PassesContext
351
350
Accurate passesContext
262
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.24
FoulsContext
10.38
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
68%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.78
12.80
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.20
BlocksContext
3.10
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
71%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
418
PassesContext
324
341
Accurate passesContext
246
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.00
FoulsContext
10.60
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel186 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 186 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 826 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
7K. Stöger
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
38A. Bolin
15H. Tabaković
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
6K. Sano
22N. Veratschnig
10N. Amiri
8P. Nebel
19A. Caci
20P. Tietz
23S. Becker
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.64
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
1.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 84 · 0.96 per game | 33 of 84 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins5 draws3 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.56
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 5 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 050–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 7 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3FSV Mainz 05
- 25 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Mar 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 6 Oct 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2FSV Mainz 05
- 24 Feb 2023FSV Mainz 054–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.72 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 59% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 8.61 | 9.41 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.59 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.87 | 4.14 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 11/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 7.10 | 8.80 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.73
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 20.3
Penalties0.21league 0.37
Home wins44%league 44%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L21 Sep 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–21
- L29 Apr 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–23
- W18 Feb 23H · Bayern München3–20
- W12 Feb 22H · FC Augsburg3–22
FSV Mainz 052 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Feb 26A · Borussia Dortmund0–42
- L14 Jan 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach29 games · scored 35 · conceded 49
4
8
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
9
61-75
9
11
76-90
FSV Mainz 0529 games · scored 35 · conceded 44
5
9
0-15
4
6
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
15
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
