Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 – 19 Sep 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 19 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach 17th · 0 pts · 3 played LLL

3–4Full time

FSV Mainz 05 8th · 4 pts · 3 played DWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 186 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel186 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0542%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.62

Borussia Mönchengladbach37%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0537%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Borussia Mönchengladbach32%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0544%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.65

Borussia Mönchengladbach27%

Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0550%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.82

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0542%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.65

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mönchengladbach)

22°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 20 km/h
Humidity 51%

Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 68

Team strength

Borussia Mönchengladbach

FSV Mainz 05

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

34 AttackIn forecast 68

21 DefenceIn forecast 56

22 Form indexContext 43

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Mönchengladbach

FSV Mainz 05

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

4.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 2.04

2.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

33% Scored inContext 67%

0% Clean sheetsContext 67%

15.00 ShotsContext 18.67

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

22% On target shareContext 30%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

74% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 11%

3.67 OffsidesContext 1.00

19.33 Shots allowedContext 9.67

10.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.50 BlocksContext 3.67

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

60% Save rateContext 50%

48% PossessionIn forecast 50%

393 PassesContext 430

326 Accurate passesContext 347

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.42 Team ratingContext 7.08

15.67 FoulsContext 12.67

8.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 15.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.78

29% On target shareContext 35%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

69% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.70

15.20 Shots allowedContext 10.60

7.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.63 BlocksContext 2.60

5.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

75% Save rateContext 57%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

434 PassesContext 402

359 Accurate passesContext 325

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.20 FoulsContext 11.20

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach LLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km738 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 22 · 0 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts
L29 AugA · RB Leipzig0–30.8 xPts

FSV Mainz 05 DWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel186 km828 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 4 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts
D29 AugH · SC Paderborn 070–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	186 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	738 km	828 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	22	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Nicolas(G)

4K. Diks 5J. Leszczyński 6K. Itakura

26L. Ullrich 16P. Sander 38A. Bolin 29J. Scally

10F. Neuhaus 9F. Honorat

3I. Lidberg

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 3F. Gruber 4S. Posch

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

23S. Becker 9P. Tietz

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Mönchengladbach Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Mönchengladbach+1.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FSV Mainz 05-1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 4.00

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins6 draws3 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game0.90 – 1.50 Over 2.530% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%

19 Apr 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1FSV Mainz 05
5 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 050–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
7 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3FSV Mainz 05
25 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 Mar 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
6 Oct 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	4.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	3.07
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	59%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	67%
Failed to score	67%	33%
Games	3	3

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.90	1.40
Match goals	3.10	3.10	3.07
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	6.67
Corners conceded	5.67	3.67
Match total	12.67	10.34	11.41
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.33
Opponent cards	1.00	1.67
Match total	3.33	3.00	3.26
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.44
Corners conceded	5.67	5.00
Match total	9.56	10.44	11.41
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	4.90	4.00	3.26
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.18

Red cards0.21league 0.11

Cards 5+35%league 18%

Fouls22.8league 22.4

Penalties0.29league 0.14

Home wins44%league 54%

Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee

Record3-0-4 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W1 Nov 25A · FC St. Pauli4–00
L26 Apr 25A · Holstein Kiel3–41
W1 Feb 25A · VfB Stuttgart2–12
L30 Nov 24A · SC Freiburg1–31
W28 Oct 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–10

FSV Mainz 055 with this referee

Record4-0-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W16 May 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–01
L5 Oct 25A · Hamburger SV0–43
W24 Feb 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–02
W15 Oct 22A · Werder Bremen2–02
W22 Oct 21H · FC Augsburg4–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.