Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg – 5 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 6 Sun, Oct 5 · 18:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 2 pts · 5 played DLLDL

0–0Full time

SC Freiburg 9th · 7 pts · 5 played LLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 39). Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8 days of rest, SC Freiburg 3 and had to travel 369 km.

Away travel369 kmRest days8 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 3

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg40%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.50

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw26%

SC Freiburg39%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.48

Borussia Mönchengladbach27%

Draw25%

SC Freiburg48%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.68

Borussia Mönchengladbach33%

Draw27%

SC Freiburg39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.41

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mönchengladbach)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 77

Team strength

Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Freiburg

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

34 AttackIn forecast 63

21 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Freiburg

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

40% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.80 ShotsContext 11.60

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

37% On target shareContext 33%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

71% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 16%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.40 Shots allowedContext 12.60

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.60 BlocksContext 4.00

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

53% Save rateContext 59%

48% PossessionIn forecast 50%

452 PassesContext 397

383 Accurate passesContext 314

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.40 FoulsContext 9.00

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

50% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.90 ShotsContext 10.90

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

38% On target shareContext 35%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.38

73% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 16%

3.38 OffsidesContext 2.88

16.70 Shots allowedContext 11.50

6.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.80 BlocksContext 4.11

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

59% Save rateContext 61%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

429 PassesContext 372

359 Accurate passesContext 290

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.30 FoulsContext 10.60

8.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Freiburg

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel369 km945 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	369 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	945 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	12	13.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

4-4-2

33M. Nicolas(G)

20L. Netz 4K. Diks 30N. Elvedi 29J. Scally

17J. Castrop 6Y. Engelhardt 16P. Sander 27R. Reitz

10F. Neuhaus 15H. Tabaković

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

30C. Günter 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu

6P. Osterhage 8M. Eggestein

32V. Grifo 9L. Höler 19J. Beste

20C. Adamu

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Mönchengladbach Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Freiburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
SC Freiburg+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 3.33

SC Freiburg · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen	L 0–4 H	W 3–0 A
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Points	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins4 draws4 SC Freiburg wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 50%

12 Apr 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2SC Freiburg
30 Nov 2024SC Freiburg3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
30 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3SC Freiburg
4 Nov 2023SC Freiburg3–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 Mar 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
11 Sep 2022SC Freiburg0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.80
Conceded per game	2.40	1.80
Match goals	3.40	3.60	2.85
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	5	5

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.71
Conceded per game	2.40	1.57
Match goals	3.40	3.29	2.85
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	71%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	43%
Both teams scored	40%	86%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	14%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	5	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	5.75
Corners conceded	4.80	4.25
Match total	11.40	10.00	10.16
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.80
Match total	3.60	5.00	4.42
Over 3.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	40% 2/5

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Freiburg	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.22
Corners conceded	5.60	3.67
Match total	11.80	8.89	10.16
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.80
Opponent cards	1.30	2.50
Match total	2.60	4.30	4.42
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.23league 4.17

Red cards0.22league 0.26

Cards 5+49%league 42%

Fouls22.7league 22.8

Penalties0.30league 0.43

Home wins56%league 42%

Borussia Mönchengladbach9 with this referee

Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.2 Pens for · against2 · 2

W14 Dec 24H · Holstein Kiel4–11
W28 Sep 24H · Union Berlin1–03
L18 May 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–42
D19 Aug 23A · FC Augsburg4–42
L13 May 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–52

SC Freiburg1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W26 Sep 21H · FC Augsburg3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.