Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 20 pts · 18 played
LLWLD
0–3Full time
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 33 pts · 18 played
WDWWD
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 44). Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.8 and had to travel 331 km.
Away travel331 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart46%
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart54%
Borussia Mönchengladbach30%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 26
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachVfB Stuttgart
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
34
AttackIn forecast
70
21
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachVfB Stuttgart
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
56%
Scored inContext
89%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.83
ShotsContext
15.00
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.61
39%
On target shareContext
37%
7.82
Shots in the boxContext
9.72
69%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.56
Shots allowedContext
12.06
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.22
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
69%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
429
PassesContext
501
355
Accurate passesContext
423
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.89
FoulsContext
10.11
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
12.22
1.28
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.90
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
40%
On target shareContext
39%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
70%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.80
BlocksContext
3.40
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
82%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
434
PassesContext
482
356
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.40
FoulsContext
9.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,266 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel331 km1,618 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 331 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,266 km | 1,618 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich
30N. Elvedi
14K. Takai
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
16P. Sander
18S. Machino
27R. Reitz
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
28N. Nartey
27B. Bouanani
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.89
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | D 0–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | L 0–5 H |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 4–6 H | W 3–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–4 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 51 · 1.18 per game | 30 of 51 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws5 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.89
Over 2.578%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets0% · 22%
- 30 Aug 2025VfB Stuttgart1–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 14 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3VfB Stuttgart
- 18 May 2024VfB Stuttgart4–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 14 Jan 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–1VfB Stuttgart
- 29 Apr 2023VfB Stuttgart2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.28 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 72% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 61% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 4.47 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.76 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.89 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% 5/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.33 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.75
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+58%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.1
Penalties0.23league 0.32
Home wins46%league 45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Mar 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–03
- W31 Aug 24A · VfL Bochum2–00
- L20 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–43
- L17 Feb 24A · RB Leipzig0–25
VfB Stuttgart1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Nov 25A · Hamburger SV1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach18 games · scored 23 · conceded 29
2
6
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
VfB Stuttgart18 games · scored 33 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
9
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
10
11
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
