Bournemouth vs Leeds – 22 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Wed, Apr 22 · 20:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 9th · 48 pts · 33 played DDDWW

2–2Full time

Leeds 15th · 39 pts · 33 played LDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Leeds. Bournemouth had 4.2 days of rest, Leeds 4.2 and had to travel 343 km.

Away travel343 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bournemouth50%

Draw24%

Leeds26%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.28

Bournemouth49%

Draw26%

Leeds25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Bournemouth49%

Draw24%

Leeds27%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.29

Bournemouth42%

Draw25%

Leeds33%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.44

Bournemouth49%

Draw25%

Leeds26%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.22

Over 2.5 60% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 85

Team strength

Bournemouth

Leeds

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

83 AttackIn forecast 69

82 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Leeds

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

79% Scored inContext 67%

27% Clean sheetsContext 21%

13.76 ShotsContext 12.70

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

59% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.73 Shots allowedContext 12.09

4.42 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13

4.27 BlocksContext 3.84

3.16 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

69% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

411 PassesContext 400

328 Accurate passesContext 319

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.03 FoulsContext 10.48

10.52 Fouls sufferedContext 11.48

2.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

70% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.20 ShotsContext 12.30

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

30% On target shareContext 30%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

56% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

5.00 BlocksContext 4.10

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

85% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

437 PassesContext 393

350 Accurate passesContext 312

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.40 FoulsContext 11.40

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,248 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel343 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	343 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,248 km	115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10.8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

10R. Christie 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 7D. Brooks

9Evanilson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 11B. Aaronson

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Leeds-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 6-8-2
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.06

Leeds · Away 0.81points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-7-7
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.81

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Leeds
Newcastle	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H
Arsenal	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Burnley	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Brentford	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
West Ham	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Everton	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Aston Villa	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Wolves	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Points	47 of 96 · 1.47 per game	38 of 96 · 1.19 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins1 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game3.00 – 2.33 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Sep 2025Leeds2–2Bournemouth
30 Apr 2023Bournemouth4–1Leeds
5 Nov 2022Leeds4–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.27
Conceded per game	1.52	1.48
Match goals	3.03	2.76	3.12
Over 1.5	76%	73%
Over 2.5	58%	55%	60%
Over 3.5	45%	36%
Both teams scored	67%	58%	61%
Clean sheets	27%	21%
Failed to score	21%	33%
Games	33	33

	Bournemouth	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	0.70	1.10
Match goals	1.90	2.20	3.12
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.42	4.71
Corners conceded	5.68	4.81
Match total	11.10	9.52	10.05
Over 8.5	77% 24/31	65% 20/31
Over 9.5	68% 21/31	52% 16/31
Over 10.5	58% 18/31	39% 12/31
Cards
Cards	2.39	1.67
Opponent cards	1.94	1.79
Match total	4.33	3.46	3.88
Over 3.5	67% 22/33	42% 14/33
Over 4.5	45% 15/33	33% 11/33

	Bournemouth	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.40
Corners conceded	5.60	6.50
Match total	10.90	10.90	10.05
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.88
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.75

Red cards0.20league 0.12

Cards 5+36%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.5

Penalties0.29league 0.21

Home wins49%league 42%

Bournemouth9 with this referee

Record3-1-5 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

W24 Jan 26H · Liverpool3–21
L2 Dec 25H · Everton0–13
L22 Feb 25H · Wolves0–14
D17 Feb 24A · Newcastle2–23
L30 Sep 23H · Arsenal0–40

Leeds5 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L7 Jan 26A · Newcastle3–42
W1 Feb 25H · Cardiff7–00
W18 Mar 23A · Wolves4–25
L12 Nov 22A · Tottenham3–43
L27 Aug 22A · Brighton0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.