Bournemouth vs Manchester City – 19 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 37 Tue, May 19 · 19:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 6th · 55 pts · 36 played WWDWW

1–1Full time

Manchester City 2nd · 77 pts · 36 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 79). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bournemouth. Bournemouth had 10.2 days of rest, Manchester City 6 and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmRest days10.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2

Bournemouth32%

Draw23%

Manchester City45%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.91

Bournemouth31%

Draw27%

Manchester City42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Bournemouth33%

Draw23%

Manchester City44%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.86

Bournemouth25%

Draw22%

Manchester City53%

Expected goals 1.42 – 2.14

Bournemouth33%

Draw24%

Manchester City43%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.71

Over 2.5 68% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Bournemouth

Manchester City

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

83 AttackIn forecast 92

82 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Manchester City

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.08

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

81% Scored inContext 89%

31% Clean sheetsContext 44%

13.81 ShotsContext 15.69

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.47

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.43 Shots in the boxContext 11.39

59% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.12 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.53 Shots allowedContext 9.64

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

4.17 BlocksContext 3.09

3.03 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.49

69% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 61%

411 PassesContext 591

329 Accurate passesContext 523

80% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.12

12.06 FoulsContext 9.81

10.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.31

2.31 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.50 ShotsContext 19.70

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

30% On target shareContext 33%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 13.80

56% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.00 Shots allowedContext 8.90

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.80 BlocksContext 3.11

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

82% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 64%

431 PassesContext 628

345 Accurate passesContext 564

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.01 Team ratingContext 7.08

11.70 FoulsContext 8.80

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest10.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester City

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.2Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May	6Premier League 2025-2026, 13 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 15A. Smith

12T. Adams 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 15A. Guéhi 45A. Khusanov 27M. Nunes

16Rodri

11J. Doku 8M. Kovačić 20Bernardo Silva 42A. Semenyo

9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-1.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Manchester City+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.67points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 7-9-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.06

Manchester City · Away 1.78points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 9-5-4
Scored: 1.72
Conceded: 1.11

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Manchester City
Fulham	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	W 3–0 HW 5–4 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–0 HD 3–3 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Leeds	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Arsenal	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H
Burnley	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 5–1 H
Brentford	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
West Ham	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
Everton	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H
Aston Villa	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
Wolves	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HW 4–0 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A	W 2–1 AW 3–0 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Tottenham	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	W 3–0 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Points	55 of 105 · 1.57 per game	74 of 105 · 2.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins0 draws6 Manchester City wins

Goals per game0.86 – 3.14 Over 2.586% Both scored71% Clean sheets0% · 29%

2 Nov 2025Manchester City3–1Bournemouth
20 May 2025Manchester City3–1Bournemouth
2 Nov 2024Bournemouth2–1Manchester City
24 Feb 2024Bournemouth0–1Manchester City
4 Nov 2023Manchester City6–1Bournemouth
25 Feb 2023Bournemouth1–4Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	2.08
Conceded per game	1.44	0.89
Match goals	3.00	2.97	3.50
Over 1.5	75%	86%
Over 2.5	58%	64%	68%
Over 3.5	44%	22%
Both teams scored	64%	47%	68%
Clean sheets	31%	44%
Failed to score	19%	11%
Games	36	36

	Bournemouth	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.10
Conceded per game	0.70	0.80
Match goals	2.00	2.90	3.50
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	68%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	6.37
Corners conceded	5.56	3.83
Match total	11.12	10.20	10.08
Over 8.5	76% 26/34	69% 24/35
Over 9.5	68% 23/34	54% 19/35
Over 10.5	59% 20/34	43% 15/35
Cards
Cards	2.36	1.78
Opponent cards	1.97	2.11
Match total	4.33	3.89	3.90
Over 3.5	64% 23/36	64% 23/36
Over 4.5	44% 16/36	36% 13/36

	Bournemouth	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	9.90
Corners conceded	5.30	3.20
Match total	10.80	13.10	10.08
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	4.00	3.60	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.78

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls21.1league 21.6

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins36%league 43%

Bournemouth9 with this referee

Record0-3-6 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

D7 Feb 26H · Aston Villa1–11
L2 Nov 25A · Manchester City1–32
L15 Aug 25A · Liverpool2–42
L14 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–16
L19 May 24A · Chelsea1–23

Manchester City22 with this referee

Record10-5-7 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

W19 Apr 26H · Arsenal2–12
L17 Jan 26A · Manchester United0–23
W2 Nov 25H · Bournemouth3–12
W14 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–00
L23 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.