Bournemouth vs Tottenham – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 15th · 23 pts · 20 played DDLDL

3–2Full time

Tottenham 13th · 27 pts · 20 played LLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bournemouth had 4.1 days of rest, Tottenham 3.2 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days4.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Bournemouth42%

Draw26%

Tottenham32%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.31

Bournemouth41%

Draw27%

Tottenham32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Bournemouth42%

Draw26%

Tottenham32%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.31

Bournemouth35%

Draw26%

Tottenham39%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.47

Bournemouth41%

Draw27%

Tottenham32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 111

Team strength

Bournemouth

Tottenham

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

83 AttackIn forecast 56

82 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Tottenham

1.55 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

80% Scored inContext 80%

25% Clean sheetsContext 35%

13.90 ShotsContext 9.90

5.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.84 Shots in the boxContext 7.26

60% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.65 BlocksContext 2.74

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.06

63% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

415 PassesContext 413

333 Accurate passesContext 338

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.55 FoulsContext 10.90

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.35

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.55

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.80 ShotsContext 11.40

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

35% On target shareContext 38%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

63% Box shareContext 74%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.30 BlocksContext 3.40

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

58% Save rateContext 58%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

399 PassesContext 378

314 Accurate passesContext 300

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.70 FoulsContext 10.20

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 7.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km579 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel151 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	579 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	12	9.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

4L. Cook 8A. Scott

24A. Semenyo 22E. Kroupi 16M. Tavernier

9Evanilson

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha

11M. Tel 7X. Simons 15L. Bergvall

39R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Tottenham+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 0.90

Tottenham · Away 1.80points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 5-3-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Tottenham
Arsenal	L 2–3 H	L 1–4 A
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Brentford	L 1–4 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Burnley	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Manchester United	D 4–4 A	D 2–2 H
Everton	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 A
Sunderland	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
West Ham	D 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
Aston Villa	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 H
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 A
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	W 1–0 A
Fulham	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 H
Leeds	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Brighton	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Wolves	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Liverpool	L 2–4 A	L 1–2 H
Points	20 of 57 · 1.05 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Bournemouth wins1 draws3 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.71 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

30 Aug 2025Tottenham0–1Bournemouth
9 Mar 2025Tottenham2–2Bournemouth
5 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–0Tottenham
31 Dec 2023Tottenham3–1Bournemouth
26 Aug 2023Bournemouth0–2Tottenham
15 Apr 2023Tottenham2–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.55	1.40
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	3.45	2.60	2.84
Over 1.5	75%	80%
Over 2.5	65%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	20	20

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	2.40	1.60
Match goals	3.80	2.70	2.84
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	70%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.72	5.37
Corners conceded	5.06	5.00
Match total	10.78	10.37	9.89
Over 8.5	72% 13/18	58% 11/19
Over 9.5	61% 11/18	53% 10/19
Over 10.5	56% 10/18	47% 9/19
Cards
Cards	2.45	2.65
Opponent cards	2.05	1.70
Match total	4.50	4.35	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 14/20	65% 13/20
Over 4.5	40% 8/20	55% 11/20

	Bournemouth	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	4.50
Corners conceded	5.22	4.70
Match total	11.44	9.20	9.89
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.20
Match total	4.50	4.90	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 111 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 3.67

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+41%league 37%

Fouls22.2league 21.4

Penalties0.28league 0.20

Home wins44%league 45%

Bournemouth3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

L1 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–22
L10 Feb 24A · Fulham1–32
W27 Apr 23A · Southampton1–03

Tottenham5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Jan 25A · Everton2–31
W15 Dec 24A · Southampton5–03
L10 Nov 24H · Ipswich1–21
W2 Sep 23A · Burnley5–23
W6 May 23H · Crystal Palace1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.