Bournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 54). Absences weigh more on West Ham. Bournemouth had 13 days of rest, West Ham 14 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bournemouth59%
Draw23%
West Ham19%
Bournemouth56%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Bournemouth57%
Draw23%
West Ham20%
Bournemouth51%
Draw25%
West Ham25%
Bournemouth57%
Draw24%
West Ham19%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 92
Team strength
Bournemouth
West Ham
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
83
AttackIn forecast
68
82
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BournemouthWest Ham
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.09
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
82%
Scored inContext
64%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.45
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.82
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
56%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.82
Shots allowedContext
14.64
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.18
3.27
BlocksContext
4.27
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
58%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
421
PassesContext
394
343
Accurate passesContext
320
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.09
FoulsContext
10.64
10.27
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.20
ShotsContext
10.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
38%
On target shareContext
40%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
54%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.10
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.40
BlocksContext
4.60
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
433
PassesContext
378
356
Accurate passesContext
305
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.40
FoulsContext
10.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bournemouth
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bournemouth |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
4L. Cook
12T. Adams
8A. Scott
16M. Tavernier
22E. Kroupi
7D. Brooks
9Evanilson
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
25J. Todibo
5Igor Julio
3M. Kilman
12E. Diouf
18Mateus Fernandes
32F. Potts
29A. Wan-Bissaka
17Luis Guilherme
9C. Wilson
20J. Bowen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bournemouth
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bournemouth+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- West Ham-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bournemouth · Home
2.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.40
West Ham · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Bournemouth | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Leeds | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Bournemouth wins4 draws2 West Ham wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 5 Apr 2025West Ham2–2Bournemouth
- 16 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–1West Ham
- 1 Feb 2024West Ham1–1Bournemouth
- 12 Aug 2023Bournemouth1–1West Ham
- 23 Apr 2023Bournemouth0–4West Ham
- 24 Oct 2022West Ham2–0Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bournemouth | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 2.09 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 3.27 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 73% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Bournemouth | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bournemouth | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.73 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 12.46 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 3.09 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Bournemouth | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 12.50 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.30 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.63
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls22.1league 22.0
Penalties0.15league 0.18
Home wins49%league 52%
Bournemouth6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25H · Wolves1–02
- L20 May 25A · Manchester City1–34
- D26 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace0–02
- D3 Dec 23H · Aston Villa2–25
- L19 Aug 23A · Liverpool1–33
West Ham3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.4.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L18 Jan 25H · Crystal Palace0–23
- L17 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest0–26
- L4 Nov 23A · Brentford2–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bournemouth11 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
West Ham11 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
7
3
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
