Brentford vs Bournemouth – 27 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 12th · 23 pts · 17 played WLLDW

4–1Full time

Bournemouth 15th · 22 pts · 17 played LLDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Brentford had 7 days of rest, Bournemouth 7 and had to travel 139 km.

Away travel139 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford46%

Draw26%

Bournemouth29%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.24

Brentford45%

Draw27%

Bournemouth28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Brentford46%

Draw26%

Bournemouth29%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.24

Brentford38%

Draw26%

Bournemouth36%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.39

Brentford45%

Draw27%

Bournemouth28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.16

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 112

Team strength

Brentford

Bournemouth

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

73 AttackIn forecast 83

73 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Bournemouth

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

76% Scored inContext 76%

18% Clean sheetsContext 29%

9.71 ShotsContext 13.29

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.82

41% On target shareContext 36%

7.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

72% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 12%

1.93 OffsidesContext 2.24

12.41 Shots allowedContext 11.76

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.65

4.29 BlocksContext 3.35

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.27

68% Save rateContext 65%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

369 PassesContext 430

290 Accurate passesContext 348

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.53 FoulsContext 12.82

8.94 Fouls sufferedContext 11.18

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 13.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

39% On target shareContext 38%

8.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

72% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.30

11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.90 BlocksContext 3.90

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

69% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 54%

404 PassesContext 434

318 Accurate passesContext 350

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.80 FoulsContext 13.80

8.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km348 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel139 km616 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	139 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	348 km	616 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 8M. Jensen 23K. Lewis-Potter

9Thiago

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

8A. Scott 4L. Cook

24A. Semenyo 16M. Tavernier 20Álex Jiménez

22E. Kroupi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford-0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bournemouth+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.13

Bournemouth · Away 0.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 2.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Bournemouth
Wolves	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Leeds	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Tottenham	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Burnley	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Newcastle	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	D 3–3 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 2–4 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	D 4–4 A
Fulham	L 1–3 A	W 3–1 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	22 of 48 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Brentford wins2 draws0 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.83 – 1.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

15 Mar 2025Bournemouth1–2Brentford
9 Nov 2024Brentford3–2Bournemouth
11 May 2024Bournemouth1–2Brentford
2 Sep 2023Brentford2–2Bournemouth
14 Jan 2023Brentford2–0Bournemouth
1 Oct 2022Bournemouth0–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.53
Conceded per game	1.47	1.71
Match goals	2.88	3.24	2.85
Over 1.5	88%	71%
Over 2.5	53%	59%	54%
Over 3.5	41%	53%
Both teams scored	59%	59%	57%
Clean sheets	18%	29%
Failed to score	24%	24%
Games	17	17

	Brentford	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.30	2.10
Match goals	2.80	3.60	2.85
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	5.20
Corners conceded	4.63	4.80
Match total	10.01	10.00	9.85
Over 8.5	69% 11/16	67% 10/15
Over 9.5	63% 10/16	53% 8/15
Over 10.5	56% 9/16	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.53
Opponent cards	1.94	2.18
Match total	3.94	4.71	3.87
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	71% 12/17
Over 4.5	53% 9/17	47% 8/17

	Brentford	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	5.11
Corners conceded	5.00	5.22
Match total	10.89	10.33	9.85
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.80	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 112 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.13league 3.72

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+45%league 38%

Fouls21.5league 21.7

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins50%league 48%

Brentford15 with this referee

Record3-4-8 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7 Pens for · against3 · 0

L1 Nov 25A · Crystal Palace0–23
L17 Aug 25A · Nottingham Forest1–32
L2 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–21
L1 Jan 25H · Arsenal1–31
L15 Dec 24A · Chelsea1–22

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record5-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.6 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds1

W13 Sep 25H · Brighton2–14
D27 Apr 25H · Manchester United1–15
W30 Nov 24A · Wolves4–21
W9 Dec 23A · Manchester United3–01
D12 Aug 23H · West Ham1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.