Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were slight favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 68). Chelsea usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Brentford had 14.2 days of rest, Chelsea 14.3 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days14.2 · 14.3Matches / 14d0 · 0
Brentford30%
Draw26%
Chelsea44%
Brentford31%
Draw27%
Chelsea42%
Brentford30%
Draw26%
Chelsea44%
Brentford24%
Draw24%
Chelsea52%
Brentford31%
Draw27%
Chelsea42%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 119
Team strength
Brentford
Chelsea
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
73
AttackIn forecast
77
73
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordChelsea
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
2.23
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
8.67
ShotsContext
14.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
77%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.33
BlocksContext
3.00
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
50%
Save rateContext
73%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
293
PassesContext
546
227
Accurate passesContext
481
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.65
Team ratingContext
7.27
12.67
FoulsContext
10.33
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
43%
On target shareContext
39%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
83%
Box shareContext
70%
17%
ConversionContext
17%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
345
PassesContext
524
276
Accurate passesContext
459
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.14
10.60
FoulsContext
10.00
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Chelsea
Rest14.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 14.3Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
5E. Pinnock
22N. Collins
4S. van den Berg
33M. Kayode
18Y. Yarmoliuk
6J. Henderson
8M. Jensen
7K. Schade
9Thiago
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
21J. Hato
23T. Chalobah
4T. Adarabioyo
29W. Fofana
25M. Caicedo
8E. Fernández
11J. Gittens
40F. Buonanotte
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Chelsea
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Chelsea+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Chelsea · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Brentford wins3 draws2 Chelsea wins
Goals per game1.38 – 0.75
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 38%
- 6 Apr 2025Brentford0–0Chelsea
- 15 Dec 2024Chelsea2–1Brentford
- 2 Mar 2024Brentford2–2Chelsea
- 28 Oct 2023Chelsea0–2Brentford
- 26 Apr 2023Chelsea0–2Brentford
- 19 Oct 2022Brentford0–0Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Brentford | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 11.66 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.34 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Brentford | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.80 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.20 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.57
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 41%
Fouls21.0league 22.8
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins50%league 51%
Brentford8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Jan 25A · Southampton5–00
- L4 Nov 24A · Fulham1–21
- L25 Aug 24A · Liverpool0–23
- L9 Dec 23A · Sheffield Utd0–11
- W2 Jan 23H · Liverpool3–11
Chelsea16 with this referee
Record4-7-5
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D13 Apr 25H · Ipswich2–22
- W3 Feb 25H · West Ham2–13
- W1 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02
- W7 Oct 23A · Burnley4–14
- L25 May 23A · Manchester United1–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Chelsea3 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 6
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
6
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
