Brentford
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Brentford30.1%fair odds 3.32
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Chelsea44.1%fair odds 2.27
Expected goals1.28 – 1.59total 2.87
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brentford ↓ · Chelsea → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brentford goals, columns Chelsea goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.23
- 1–29.2%10.90
- 0–18.4%11.90
- 2–17.4%13.55
- 0–27.2%13.95
- 1–06.6%15.07
- 0–06.3%15.94
- 2–25.9%17.03
- 1–34.9%20.54
- 2–04.6%21.56
Winning margin
4.4%
Brentford by 3+
fair 22.53
8.7%
Brentford by 2
fair 11.48
17.0%
Brentford by 1
fair 5.88
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
21.3%
Chelsea by 1
fair 4.70
13.5%
Chelsea by 2
fair 7.43
9.3%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 10.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Brentford goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Chelsea goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 30.1% | 30.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Chelsea win | 44.1% | 42.4% | +1.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 50.3% | +4.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 54.8% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Brentford | 1.28 | 1.22 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 1.59 | 1.47 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brentford win30.1%3.32
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Chelsea win44.1%2.27
- Double chance Brentford or draw55.9%1.79
- Double chance Brentford or Chelsea74.2%1.35
- Double chance Chelsea or draw69.9%1.43
- Draw no bet Brentford40.6%2.46
- Draw no bet Chelsea59.4%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.7%1.27
- Over 2.554.7%1.83
- Over 3.532.4%3.09
- Over 4.516.4%6.11
- Under 1.521.3%4.69
- Under 2.545.3%2.21
- Under 3.567.6%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.0%2.18
- Brentford win and yes16.0%6.23
- Draw and yes19.5%5.12
- Chelsea win and yes22.5%4.44
Team goals
- Brentford over 0.572.2%1.39
- Brentford over 1.536.6%2.73
- Brentford over 2.513.8%7.23
- Chelsea over 0.579.6%1.26
- Chelsea over 1.547.2%2.12
- Chelsea over 2.521.4%4.66
- Brentford clean sheet20.4%4.91
- Chelsea clean sheet27.8%3.60
- Brentford win to nil14.1%7.10
- Chelsea win to nil21.5%4.64
Handicap
- Brentford −1.513.1%7.61
- Brentford −2.54.4%22.53
- Chelsea +1.586.9%1.15
- Chelsea +2.595.6%1.05
- Chelsea −1.522.8%4.39
- Brentford +1.577.2%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right45.9%
BTTS called right32.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.2% | 57.1% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 53.3% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 7 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5643 | 0.4857 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.8% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 71.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 7 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.