Brentford vs Crystal Palace – 17 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 8th · 51 pts · 36 played DDLWL

2–2Full time

Crystal Palace 15th · 44 pts · 36 played DLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Brentford had 7.9 days of rest, Crystal Palace 3.8 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days7.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Brentford44%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace31%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.39

Brentford49%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Brentford44%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace31%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.39

Brentford36%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace39%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.56

Brentford43%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace31%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.32

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 84

Team strength

Brentford

Crystal Palace

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

73 AttackIn forecast 64

73 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Crystal Palace

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

67% Scored inContext 67%

28% Clean sheetsContext 33%

10.56 ShotsContext 11.61

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

37% On target shareContext 32%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.71

72% Box shareContext 73%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.30

12.92 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.34

4.44 BlocksContext 3.21

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

69% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

395 PassesContext 396

313 Accurate passesContext 310

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.75 FoulsContext 10.67

9.34 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78

1.81 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

50% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.50

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

71% Box shareContext 74%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.70 Shots allowedContext 12.30

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.25 BlocksContext 4.20

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

68% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

415 PassesContext 358

327 Accurate passesContext 285

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.40 FoulsContext 11.20

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km515 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	515 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

24M. Damsgaard 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

34C. Riad 5M. Lacroix 23J. Canvot

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

22J. Strand Larsen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.72points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 8-7-3
Scored: 1.72
Conceded: 1.06

Crystal Palace · Away 1.28points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 7-2-9
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Crystal Palace
Manchester City	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H
West Ham	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Fulham	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Everton	D 2–2 HW 4–2 A	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Leeds	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Wolves	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H
Burnley	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Brighton	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–3 HD 0–0 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 AL 0–1 H
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Points	51 of 105 · 1.46 per game	41 of 105 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Brentford wins5 draws2 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.11 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 33%

1 Nov 2025Crystal Palace2–0Brentford
26 Jan 2025Crystal Palace1–2Brentford
18 Aug 2024Brentford2–1Crystal Palace
30 Dec 2023Crystal Palace3–1Brentford
26 Aug 2023Brentford1–1Crystal Palace
18 Feb 2023Brentford1–1Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.06
Conceded per game	1.36	1.31
Match goals	2.81	2.36	3.08
Over 1.5	81%	69%
Over 2.5	53%	53%	59%
Over 3.5	36%	19%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	28%	33%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	36	36

	Brentford	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.60	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.22
Corners conceded	5.23	5.17
Match total	10.12	9.39	10.09
Over 8.5	69% 24/35	56% 20/36
Over 9.5	63% 22/35	47% 17/36
Over 10.5	54% 19/35	36% 13/36
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.06
Opponent cards	1.92	1.89
Match total	3.75	3.95	3.92
Over 3.5	56% 20/36	64% 23/36
Over 4.5	39% 14/36	50% 18/36

	Brentford	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	3.00
Corners conceded	5.20	6.60
Match total	9.50	9.60	10.09
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	3.70	3.30	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.79

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+31%league 38%

Fouls20.3league 21.6

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins38%league 43%

Brentford7 with this referee

Record5-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W28 Feb 26A · Burnley4–32
L25 Jan 26H · Nottingham Forest0–21
W29 Nov 25H · Burnley3–10
W10 May 25A · Ipswich1–03
L19 Oct 24A · Manchester United1–22

Crystal Palace4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W7 Dec 25A · Fulham2–10
D19 Apr 25H · Bournemouth0–05
L18 Aug 24A · Brentford1–25
L11 Nov 23H · Everton2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.