Brentford vs Fulham – 18 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 12:30 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 47 pts · 32 played WDDDD

0–0Full time

Fulham 12th · 44 pts · 32 played WLDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fulham. Brentford had 6.9 days of rest, Fulham 6.8 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brentford47%

Draw25%

Fulham28%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.31

Brentford48%

Draw26%

Fulham26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Brentford47%

Draw25%

Fulham28%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.28

Brentford39%

Draw25%

Fulham36%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.46

Brentford46%

Draw26%

Fulham28%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.22

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereePaul Tierney

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 121

Team strength

Brentford

Fulham

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

73 AttackIn forecast 66

73 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Fulham

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.34

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

69% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 19%

10.53 ShotsContext 12.53

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.87

37% On target shareContext 30%

8.07 Shots in the boxContext 8.74

73% Box shareContext 68%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.66 Shots allowedContext 11.84

4.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.91

4.28 BlocksContext 3.66

2.97 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

69% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 52%

396 PassesContext 477

313 Accurate passesContext 400

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.88 FoulsContext 10.69

9.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.41

1.81 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.20

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 28%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

74% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.33

13.40 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.10 BlocksContext 4.30

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

66% Save rateContext 64%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

413 PassesContext 487

321 Accurate passesContext 410

78% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.40 FoulsContext 9.80

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel13 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	9.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

30K. Sessegnon 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

10T. Cairney 20S. Lukić

17A. Iwobi 32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

9Rodrigo Muniz

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fulham+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.69points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 7-6-3
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.19

Fulham · Away 0.94points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-9
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Fulham
Everton	D 2–2 HW 4–2 A	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Leeds	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Wolves	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 H
Bournemouth	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	L 1–3 A
Burnley	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A
Brighton	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Arsenal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
West Ham	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Points	47 of 93 · 1.52 per game	41 of 93 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Brentford wins1 draws4 Fulham wins

Goals per game1.71 – 1.86 Over 2.586% Both scored71% Clean sheets29% · 14%

20 Sep 2025Fulham3–1Brentford
18 May 2025Brentford2–3Fulham
4 Nov 2024Fulham2–1Brentford
4 May 2024Brentford0–0Fulham
19 Aug 2023Fulham0–3Brentford
6 Mar 2023Brentford3–2Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.34
Conceded per game	1.38	1.44
Match goals	2.88	2.78	3.04
Over 1.5	81%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	56%	59%
Over 3.5	41%	28%
Both teams scored	53%	59%	61%
Clean sheets	25%	19%
Failed to score	31%	25%
Games	32	32

	Brentford	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.70	2.80	3.04
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	59%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.84	4.84
Corners conceded	5.06	5.69
Match total	9.90	10.53	10.06
Over 8.5	68% 21/31	81% 26/32
Over 9.5	61% 19/31	69% 22/32
Over 10.5	52% 16/31	47% 15/32
Cards
Cards	1.84	2.03
Opponent cards	1.84	1.84
Match total	3.68	3.87	3.91
Over 3.5	53% 17/32	59% 19/32
Over 4.5	38% 12/32	47% 15/32

	Brentford	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	5.70
Corners conceded	5.60	5.50
Match total	9.40	11.20	10.06
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.50
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.40	3.90	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Paul Tierney 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.84league 3.77

Red cards0.12league 0.13

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls22.0league 21.5

Penalties0.17league 0.22

Home wins38%league 42%

Brentford6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L12 Nov 23A · Liverpool0–32
D1 Oct 23A · Nottingham Forest1–12
L15 Apr 23A · Wolves0–21
D18 Feb 23H · Crystal Palace1–12
L22 May 22H · Leeds1–24

Fulham7 with this referee

Record1-3-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L11 Feb 26A · Manchester City0–31
W10 Dec 23H · West Ham5–02
D23 Sep 23A · Crystal Palace0–02
D26 Aug 23A · Arsenal2–26
L23 Jan 23H · Tottenham0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.