Brentford
Attack−4%
Defense risk+14%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 77). Absences weigh more on Liverpool. Brentford were without K. Schade and N. Collins. Liverpool were without D. Szoboszlai and R. Gravenberch. Brentford had 7 days of rest, Liverpool 2.9 and had to travel 280 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel280 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brentford42%
Draw23%
Liverpool35%
Brentford38%
Draw27%
Liverpool35%
Brentford41%
Draw23%
Liverpool36%
Brentford34%
Draw23%
Liverpool44%
Brentford42%
Draw24%
Liverpool34%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 69%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 60%
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 109
Team strength
Brentford
Liverpool
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
73
AttackIn forecast
85
73
DefenceIn forecast
84
70
Form indexContext
85
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack+1%
Defense risk+4%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
BrentfordLiverpool
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.83
ShotsContext
14.83
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
28%
On target shareContext
34%
11.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
74%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.17
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.50
BlocksContext
3.83
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
373
PassesContext
479
290
Accurate passesContext
408
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.91
16.00
FoulsContext
14.00
8.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
16.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
29%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
70%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.60
16.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.44
BlocksContext
3.10
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
369
PassesContext
481
288
Accurate passesContext
413
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.40
FoulsContext
11.70
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
DDDWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km311 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 7 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Liverpool
WDWLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel280 km2,667 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 85 · 10 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 13 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 280 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 311 km | 2,667 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
4S. van den Berg
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony
8M. Jensen
11D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5J. Jacquet
33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola
7F. Wirtz
23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −14.2% · Defence line −21.6% of weighted minutes
- MID K. Schade Starter 6.85 Att −8.1% Def −5.9%
- DEF N. Collins Starter 6.78 Def −11.2%
- MID M. Damsgaard Starter 7.02 Att −6.1% Def −4.5%
Liverpool
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −53.8% · Defence line −17.1% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Szoboszlai Core 7.40 Att −16.4% Def −9.8%
- MID R. Gravenberch Starter 6.91 Att −9.7% Def −5.8%
- ATT C. Gakpo Starter 6.86 Att −16.1%
- ATT H. Ekitiké Rotation 6.86 Att −5.9%
- ATT A. Isak Rotation 6.73 Att −3.4%
- ATT R. Ngumoha Rotation 6.77 Att −2.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Liverpool-1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Liverpool · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Brentford wins2 draws6 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 24 May 2026Liverpool1–1Brentford
- 25 Oct 2025Brentford3–2Liverpool
- 18 Jan 2025Brentford0–2Liverpool
- 25 Aug 2024Liverpool2–0Brentford
- 17 Feb 2024Brentford1–4Liverpool
- 12 Nov 2023Liverpool3–0Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.33 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 69% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Brentford | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 69% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.84 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.67 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Brentford | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.80 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.89
Red cards0.14league 0.15
Cards 5+49%league 43%
Fouls22.5league 23.0
Penalties0.26league 0.16
Home wins52%league 38%
Brentford8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D12 Feb 26H · Arsenal1–13
- L17 Jan 26A · Chelsea0–22
- D14 Dec 25H · Leeds1–10
- L21 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–31
- W28 May 23H · Manchester City1–04
Liverpool6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Dec 25A · Tottenham2–13
- W20 Oct 24H · Chelsea2–14
- L17 Mar 24A · Manchester United3–43
- W27 Aug 23A · Newcastle2–13
- D20 May 23H · Aston Villa1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford6 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Liverpool6 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
7
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
