Brentford vs Newcastle – 9 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 13th · 13 pts · 10 played WLWWL

3–1Full time

Newcastle 14th · 12 pts · 10 played LWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 70). Absences weigh more on Newcastle. Brentford had 8 days of rest, Newcastle 7 and had to travel 397 km.

Away travel397 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brentford38%

Draw27%

Newcastle36%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.38

Brentford37%

Draw27%

Newcastle36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Brentford36%

Draw26%

Newcastle37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.41

Brentford31%

Draw26%

Newcastle43%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.54

Brentford38%

Draw27%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.30

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 124

Team strength

Brentford

Newcastle

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

73 AttackIn forecast 61

73 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Newcastle

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.20 ShotsContext 12.60

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

41% On target shareContext 31%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

70% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.20

12.90 Shots allowedContext 10.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.70 BlocksContext 3.88

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

66% Save rateContext 77%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

346 PassesContext 432

271 Accurate passesContext 352

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.60 FoulsContext 11.70

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.20 ShotsContext 12.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

41% On target shareContext 41%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

70% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.70 BlocksContext 4.33

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

66% Save rateContext 82%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

346 PassesContext 430

271 Accurate passesContext 353

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.60 FoulsContext 11.00

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel397 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov	7Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	397 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	26 km	796 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

2A. Hickey 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

18Y. Yarmoliuk 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+1.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Newcastle-1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.20

Newcastle · Away 0.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-2
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Newcastle
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 2–3 H
West Ham	W 2–0 A	L 1–3 A
Fulham	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Points	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Brentford wins1 draws6 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.63 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

2 Apr 2025Newcastle2–1Brentford
7 Dec 2024Brentford4–2Newcastle
19 May 2024Brentford2–4Newcastle
16 Sep 2023Newcastle1–0Brentford
8 Apr 2023Brentford1–2Newcastle
8 Oct 2022Newcastle5–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.10	2.80
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

	Brentford	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.10	2.80
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.80
Corners conceded	4.50	4.90
Match total	9.80	10.70	9.83
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.20	3.68
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

	Brentford	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.40
Corners conceded	4.50	6.00
Match total	9.80	11.40	9.83
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	4.00	3.10	3.68
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.58

Red cards0.12league 0.10

Cards 5+43%league 38%

Fouls21.0league 21.9

Penalties0.19league 0.17

Home wins51%league 51%

Brentford9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D13 Sep 25H · Chelsea2–23
W4 Jan 25A · Southampton5–00
L4 Nov 24A · Fulham1–21
L25 Aug 24A · Liverpool0–23
L9 Dec 23A · Sheffield Utd0–11

Newcastle13 with this referee

Record8-1-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

L18 Jan 25H · Bournemouth1–41
W21 Dec 24A · Ipswich4–00
W4 Nov 23H · Arsenal1–05
W24 Sep 23A · Sheffield Utd8–00
L2 Sep 23A · Brighton1–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.