Brentford vs Tottenham – 1 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 19 Thu, Jan 1 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 11th · 26 pts · 18 played LLDWW

0–0Full time

Tottenham 13th · 25 pts · 18 played DWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Brentford had 5.2 days of rest, Tottenham 4.1 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days5.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford46%

Draw26%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.23

Brentford45%

Draw27%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Brentford45%

Draw26%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.23

Brentford38%

Draw26%

Tottenham35%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.38

Brentford45%

Draw26%

Tottenham28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.17

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 124

Team strength

Brentford

Tottenham

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

73 AttackIn forecast 56

73 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Tottenham

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.28

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

78% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 33%

10.00 ShotsContext 9.78

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

41% On target shareContext 34%

7.87 Shots in the boxContext 7.18

72% Box shareContext 70%

16% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.06

12.83 Shots allowedContext 11.83

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17

4.50 BlocksContext 2.76

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

69% Save rateContext 72%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

370 PassesContext 416

291 Accurate passesContext 342

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.39 FoulsContext 11.00

8.88 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.61

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

42% On target shareContext 39%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

69% Box shareContext 72%

17% ConversionContext 15%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.40 BlocksContext 3.20

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

71% Save rateContext 54%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

399 PassesContext 380

312 Accurate passesContext 302

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.70 FoulsContext 10.70

8.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km348 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec	4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	348 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

18Y. Yarmoliuk 27V. Janelt 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 9Thiago 23K. Lewis-Potter

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha 14A. Gray

28W. Odobert 9Richarlison 20M. Kudus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Tottenham-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-1
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 1.11

Tottenham · Away 1.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-2-2
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Tottenham
Bournemouth	W 4–1 H	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Leeds	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 A
Burnley	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 H
West Ham	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 A
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 A
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Fulham	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Nottingham Forest	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Points	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game	19 of 48 · 1.19 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Brentford wins3 draws5 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.11 – 1.89 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets11% · 44%

6 Dec 2025Tottenham2–0Brentford
2 Feb 2025Brentford0–2Tottenham
21 Sep 2024Tottenham3–1Brentford
31 Jan 2024Tottenham3–2Brentford
13 Aug 2023Brentford2–2Tottenham
20 May 2023Tottenham1–3Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.50
Conceded per game	1.44	1.28
Match goals	3.00	2.78	2.85
Over 1.5	89%	83%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	44%	22%
Both teams scored	61%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	22%	17%
Games	18	18

	Brentford	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	3.10	2.90	2.85
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.18	5.76
Corners conceded	5.24	5.12
Match total	10.42	10.88	9.90
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	65% 11/17
Over 9.5	65% 11/17	59% 10/17
Over 10.5	59% 10/17	53% 9/17
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.72
Opponent cards	1.94	1.67
Match total	3.94	4.39	3.85
Over 3.5	61% 11/18	67% 12/18
Over 4.5	50% 9/18	56% 10/18

	Brentford	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.70
Corners conceded	6.00	4.60
Match total	11.00	9.30	9.90
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	3.10
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.90	5.10	3.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.35league 3.71

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+29%league 38%

Fouls23.0league 21.4

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins48%league 46%

Brentford9 with this referee

Record4-2-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.1 Pens for · against1 · 0

W20 Oct 25A · West Ham2–01
L18 Jan 25H · Liverpool0–22
D27 Dec 24A · Brighton0–02
W5 Oct 24H · Wolves5–32
D3 Apr 24H · Brighton0–01

Tottenham9 with this referee

Record5-0-4 Cards · opp.0.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L16 Mar 25A · Fulham0–20
L4 Jan 25H · Newcastle1–21
W19 Oct 24H · West Ham4–11
W19 May 24A · Sheffield Utd3–00
W27 Oct 23A · Crystal Palace2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.