Brighton vs Chelsea – 21 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Tue, Apr 21 · 20:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 9th · 47 pts · 33 played LWWWD

3–0Full time

Chelsea 6th · 48 pts · 33 played WLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brighton. Brighton had 3.1 days of rest, Chelsea 3 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brighton51%

Draw24%

Chelsea25%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.20

Brighton45%

Draw27%

Chelsea28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Brighton50%

Draw25%

Chelsea26%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.21

Brighton43%

Draw26%

Chelsea32%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.35

Brighton49%

Draw26%

Chelsea25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Over 2.5 58% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 143

Team strength

Brighton

Chelsea

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

87 AttackIn forecast 77

85 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Chelsea

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.61

1.18 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.27

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

79% Scored inContext 82%

24% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.76 ShotsContext 13.91

4.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.58

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.24 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

66% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.27 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.15 Shots allowedContext 10.79

4.03 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.48 BlocksContext 3.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

71% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 58%

468 PassesContext 546

392 Accurate passesContext 477

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.09 FoulsContext 10.97

10.27 Fouls sufferedContext 11.82

2.45 Yellow cardsContext 2.36

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.74

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.40 ShotsContext 14.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

39% On target shareContext 29%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

68% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.10 Shots allowedContext 9.30

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.13 BlocksContext 2.22

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

82% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 57%

464 PassesContext 555

382 Accurate passesContext 492

82% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.80 FoulsContext 9.80

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km859 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr	3Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	859 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10.8	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 21O. Boscagli 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

17C. Baleba 30P. Groß

22K. Mitoma 13J. Hinshelwood 11Y. Minteh

10G. Rutter

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 21J. Hato 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo 45R. Lavia 7Pedro Neto

9L. Delap

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+1.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Chelsea-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.69points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 7-6-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.06

Chelsea · Away 1.56points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 7-4-5
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Chelsea
Tottenham	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Burnley	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 A
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Everton	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Bournemouth	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Leeds	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Wolves	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
Points	44 of 96 · 1.38 per game	48 of 96 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Brighton wins3 draws3 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.40 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 10%

27 Sep 2025Chelsea1–3Brighton
14 Feb 2025Brighton3–0Chelsea
28 Sep 2024Chelsea4–2Brighton
15 May 2024Brighton1–2Chelsea
3 Dec 2023Chelsea3–2Brighton
15 Apr 2023Chelsea1–2Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.61
Conceded per game	1.18	1.27
Match goals	2.55	2.88	3.00
Over 1.5	82%	85%
Over 2.5	45%	64%	58%
Over 3.5	18%	33%
Both teams scored	61%	61%	59%
Clean sheets	24%	27%
Failed to score	21%	18%
Games	33	33

	Brighton	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.70
Match goals	2.00	3.10	3.00
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	6.38
Corners conceded	5.00	4.25
Match total	9.67	10.63	10.05
Over 8.5	61% 20/33	81% 26/32
Over 9.5	58% 19/33	72% 23/32
Over 10.5	42% 14/33	53% 17/32
Cards
Cards	2.45	2.58
Opponent cards	2.12	2.24
Match total	4.57	4.82	3.89
Over 3.5	70% 23/33	70% 23/33
Over 4.5	42% 14/33	58% 19/33

	Brighton	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	7.10
Corners conceded	5.60	3.50
Match total	9.50	10.60	10.05
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.30
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	4.40	4.00	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 143 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.75

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.5

Penalties0.22league 0.21

Home wins41%league 42%

Brighton14 with this referee

Record4-5-5 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 5

L13 Dec 25A · Liverpool0–22
W18 Oct 25H · Newcastle2–10
D4 May 25H · Newcastle1–11
D30 Dec 24A · Aston Villa2–23
W24 Aug 24H · Manchester United2–11

Chelsea8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

D27 Apr 24A · Aston Villa2–25
W3 Dec 23H · Brighton3–25
D11 Feb 23A · West Ham1–11
W6 Aug 22A · Everton1–02
L15 Jan 22A · Manchester City0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.