Brighton
Attack+27%
Defense risk−3%
Premier League
Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 18 · 14:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were clear favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Crystal Palace were without D. Henderson. Brighton had 8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 2.8 and had to travel 72 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel72 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brighton69%
Draw16%
Crystal Palace14%
Brighton57%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace19%
Brighton68%
Draw17%
Crystal Palace15%
Brighton61%
Draw19%
Crystal Palace20%
Brighton67%
Draw18%
Crystal Palace15%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 0.8 mm
- Wind 22 km/h
- Humidity 74%
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 147
Team strength
Brighton
Crystal Palace
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
87
AttackIn forecast
64
85
DefenceIn forecast
54
87
Form indexContext
55
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack−10%
Defense risk+22%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
BrightonCrystal Palace
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.07
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
18.00
ShotsContext
11.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
31%
On target shareContext
38%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
4.00
OffsidesContext
3.25
11.67
Shots allowedContext
18.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.20
BlocksContext
5.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
62%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
508
PassesContext
408
433
Accurate passesContext
330
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.83
FoulsContext
9.83
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.70
ShotsContext
11.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
32%
On target shareContext
36%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
68%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.60
Shots allowedContext
16.30
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.25
BlocksContext
4.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
70%
Save rateContext
65%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
517
PassesContext
411
441
Accurate passesContext
337
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.60
FoulsContext
10.30
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
LDWWW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Crystal Palace
LWDWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km1,478 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 55 · 7 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 915 km | 1,478 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli
5L. Dunk
44L. Vušković
24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés
13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper
26Y. Ayari
25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor
26Chris Richards
6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell
23Q. Timber
20A. Wharton
25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −17.9% · Defence line −6.1% of weighted minutes
- ATT Y. Minteh Rotation 6.82 Att −8.8%
- MID M. Wieffer Rotation 6.82 Att −4.3% Def −2.0%
- MID K. Mitoma Rotation 6.85 Att −3.8% Def −1.8%
- DEF P. Struijk Rotation 6.64 Def −2.3%
- ATT I. Osman Depth 6.53 Att −0.7%
- ATT Z. Yohanna Depth 6.70 Att −0.2%
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.12 goals
Attack line −5.5% · Defence line −25.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF D. Henderson Starter 6.81 Def −15.4%
- DEF A. Disasi Rotation 6.61 Def −4.8%
- ATT J. Mateta Rotation 6.74 Att −5.5%
- DEF C. Riad Rotation 6.55 Def −2.6%
- DEF T. Tomiyasu Rotation 6.36 Def −2.5%
- DEF B. Chilwell Depth 6.84 Def −0.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Crystal Palace-0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Crystal Palace · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
2 Brighton wins5 draws3 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.10
Over 2.530%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 8 Feb 2026Brighton0–1Crystal Palace
- 9 Nov 2025Crystal Palace0–0Brighton
- 5 Apr 2025Crystal Palace2–1Brighton
- 15 Dec 2024Brighton1–3Crystal Palace
- 3 Feb 2024Brighton4–1Crystal Palace
- 21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–1Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 3.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.70 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Brighton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 8.45 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 147 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.97
Red cards0.10league 0.18
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls22.9league 23.0
Penalties0.24league 0.17
Home wins46%league 38%
Brighton14 with this referee
Record4-6-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W25 May 25A · Tottenham4–11
- D21 Dec 24A · West Ham1–12
- D29 Nov 24H · Southampton1–12
- D22 Sep 24H · Nottingham Forest2–23
- W5 May 24H · Aston Villa1–02
Crystal Palace13 with this referee
Record3-3-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 3
- L3 May 26A · Bournemouth0–32
- L17 Jan 26A · Sunderland1–23
- L30 Nov 25H · Manchester United1–23
- W22 Feb 25A · Fulham2–03
- D7 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton6 games · scored 18 · conceded 5
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Crystal Palace6 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
