Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 45). Burnley had 8.8 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.8 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days8.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Burnley21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa56%
Burnley21%
Draw25%
Aston Villa55%
Burnley21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa56%
Burnley16%
Draw21%
Aston Villa64%
Burnley22%
Draw24%
Aston Villa54%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 200
Team strength
Burnley
Aston Villa
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
27
AttackIn forecast
83
25
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyAston Villa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
2.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
63%
Scored inContext
71%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.11
ShotsContext
12.54
3.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.26
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.71
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
61%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
16.83
Shots allowedContext
12.66
5.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.37
5.26
BlocksContext
3.89
3.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
64%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
385
PassesContext
451
303
Accurate passesContext
384
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.03
FoulsContext
9.94
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.77
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
12.00
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
68%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.40
17.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
6.10
BlocksContext
3.89
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
55%
Save rateContext
75%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
391
PassesContext
420
312
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.10
FoulsContext
10.60
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel148 km146 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 May | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 7 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 146 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
13Max Weiss(G)
23Lucas Pires
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
8L. Ugochukwu
16Florentino
11J. Anthony
28H. Mejbri
17L. Tchaouna
19Z. Flemming
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
3V. Lindelöf
27M. Rogers
6R. Barkley
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.65points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-10
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.53
Aston Villa · Away
1.35points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.41
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 HL 1–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Brighton | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A |
| Fulham | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Brentford | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| West Ham | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 4–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 102 · 0.59 per game | 55 of 102 · 1.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Burnley wins2 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.29 – 2.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 5 Oct 2025Aston Villa2–1Burnley
- 30 Dec 2023Aston Villa3–2Burnley
- 27 Aug 2023Burnley1–3Aston Villa
- 19 May 2022Aston Villa1–1Burnley
- 7 May 2022Burnley1–3Aston Villa
- 27 Jan 2021Burnley3–2Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.03 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 2.63 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 49% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 54% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 29% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Burnley | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 5.24 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.97 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 9.68 | 10.15 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 20/34 | 76% 26/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 18/34 | 68% 23/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 13/34 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.23 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.11 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 14/35 | 66% 23/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 7/35 | 40% 14/35 | |
| Burnley | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.89 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 9.00 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.81
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins36%league 43%
Burnley6 with this referee
Record1-0-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L4 May 24H · Newcastle1–42
- L16 Dec 23H · Everton0–20
- W24 Apr 22H · Wolves1–03
- L18 Sep 21H · Arsenal0–12
- L3 May 21H · West Ham1–22
Aston Villa11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L15 Mar 26A · Manchester United1–32
- D7 Feb 26A · Bournemouth1–11
- W14 Dec 25A · West Ham3–22
- L26 Dec 24A · Newcastle0–32
- D22 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley35 games · scored 35 · conceded 71
2
13
0-15
5
6
16-30
8
16
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
10
61-75
10
17
76-90
Aston Villa35 games · scored 48 · conceded 44
4
8
0-15
6
4
16-30
9
9
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
13
8
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
4
0-15
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
