Burnley vs Bournemouth – 14 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 19th · 19 pts · 29 played LWDLL

0–0Full time

Bournemouth 9th · 40 pts · 29 played DWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Burnley had 10.8 days of rest, Bournemouth 10.8 and had to travel 343 km.

Away travel343 kmRest days10.8 · 10.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Burnley29%

Draw26%

Bournemouth46%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.62

Burnley30%

Draw27%

Bournemouth43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Burnley29%

Draw26%

Bournemouth45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.60

Burnley22%

Draw24%

Bournemouth54%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.82

Burnley29%

Draw26%

Bournemouth45%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.55

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 121

Team strength

Burnley

Bournemouth

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

27 AttackIn forecast 83

25 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Bournemouth

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.52

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

66% Scored inContext 79%

10% Clean sheetsContext 28%

9.07 ShotsContext 13.66

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.83

32% On target shareContext 35%

5.52 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

59% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.19

16.41 Shots allowedContext 12.55

5.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.59

5.08 BlocksContext 3.90

3.79 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.26

64% Save rateContext 68%

41% PossessionIn forecast 50%

378 PassesContext 409

297 Accurate passesContext 325

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.00 FoulsContext 12.14

9.24 Fouls sufferedContext 10.48

1.69 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.82 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.90 ShotsContext 14.00

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

30% On target shareContext 37%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

67% Box shareContext 59%

17% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.38

17.50 Shots allowedContext 14.30

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

6.38 BlocksContext 4.30

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

63% Save rateContext 76%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

409 PassesContext 396

333 Accurate passesContext 307

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.70 FoulsContext 12.20

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel343 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	343 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	131 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 12B. Humphreys 2K. Walker

20J. Ward-Prowse 29J. Laurent

11J. Anthony 28H. Mejbri 9L. Foster

19Z. Flemming

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 8A. Scott

37Rayan 22E. Kroupi 16M. Tavernier

9Evanilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley-0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bournemouth+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 0.71points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-8
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.64

Bournemouth · Away 1.07points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-5
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 2.21

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Bournemouth
Everton	L 0–2 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Brentford	L 3–4 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Chelsea	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H	D 3–3 A
West Ham	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Sunderland	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Liverpool	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A	D 4–4 A
Brighton	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Newcastle	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fulham	L 2–3 H	W 3–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	L 2–3 H
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Leeds	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A
Manchester City	L 1–5 A	L 1–3 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	18 of 84 · 0.64 per game	39 of 84 · 1.39 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Burnley wins1 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

20 Dec 2025Bournemouth1–1Burnley
3 Mar 2024Burnley0–2Bournemouth
28 Oct 2023Bournemouth2–1Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.52
Conceded per game	2.00	1.59
Match goals	3.10	3.10	2.86
Over 1.5	90%	76%
Over 2.5	52%	55%	54%
Over 3.5	38%	48%
Both teams scored	59%	66%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	28%
Failed to score	34%	21%
Games	29	29

	Burnley	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.50
Conceded per game	2.10	1.10
Match goals	3.30	2.60	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	3.45	5.56
Corners conceded	5.93	5.59
Match total	9.38	11.15	9.98
Over 8.5	55% 16/29	78% 21/27
Over 9.5	48% 14/29	67% 18/27
Over 10.5	34% 10/29	56% 15/27
Cards
Cards	1.76	2.41
Opponent cards	1.24	1.97
Match total	3.00	4.38	3.93
Over 3.5	41% 12/29	66% 19/29
Over 4.5	17% 5/29	45% 13/29

	Burnley	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	2.90	5.20
Corners conceded	5.60	6.70
Match total	8.50	11.90	9.98
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.60
Opponent cards	1.20	1.70
Match total	3.30	4.30	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.07league 3.79

Red cards0.12league 0.12

Cards 5+44%league 40%

Fouls21.5league 21.6

Penalties0.15league 0.22

Home wins51%league 42%

Burnley6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Jan 26H · Tottenham2–21
L22 Nov 25H · Chelsea0–22
L4 Nov 23H · Crystal Palace0–20
W3 Oct 23A · Luton2–12
W11 Dec 22A · QPR3–02

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record5-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.4 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds1

L27 Dec 25A · Brentford1–42
W13 Sep 25H · Brighton2–14
D27 Apr 25H · Manchester United1–15
W30 Nov 24A · Wolves4–21
W9 Dec 23A · Manchester United3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.