Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Burnley had 21 days of rest, Brighton 21.1 and had to travel 358 km.
Away travel358 kmRest days21 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Burnley21%
Draw24%
Brighton56%
Burnley27%
Draw26%
Brighton47%
Burnley21%
Draw24%
Brighton55%
Burnley16%
Draw21%
Brighton63%
Burnley21%
Draw25%
Brighton54%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 106
Team strength
Burnley
Brighton
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
27
AttackIn forecast
87
25
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyBrighton
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
65%
Scored inContext
77%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.26
ShotsContext
12.84
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
32%
On target shareContext
35%
5.74
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
60%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.96
OffsidesContext
2.32
16.77
Shots allowedContext
12.19
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
5.26
BlocksContext
3.56
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
64%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
376
PassesContext
469
295
Accurate passesContext
393
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.00
FoulsContext
12.06
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.26
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
2.55
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.10
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
37%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
65%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.22
17.70
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
6.88
BlocksContext
3.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
60%
Save rateContext
79%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
377
PassesContext
482
300
Accurate passesContext
398
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.90
FoulsContext
11.60
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brighton
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel358 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Brighton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 21.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 358 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
12B. Humphreys
16Florentino
20J. Ward-Prowse
11J. Anthony
8L. Ugochukwu
10M. Edwards
19Z. Flemming
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
21O. Boscagli
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
30P. Groß
26Y. Ayari
11Y. Minteh
13J. Hinshelwood
25D. Gómez
18D. Welbeck
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brighton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Brighton+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.73points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.53
Brighton · Away
1.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-7
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Brentford | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| West Ham | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | L 2–4 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 90 · 0.67 per game | 40 of 90 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Burnley wins4 draws2 Brighton wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 3 Jan 2026Brighton2–0Burnley
- 13 Apr 2024Burnley1–1Brighton
- 9 Dec 2023Brighton1–1Burnley
- 19 Feb 2022Brighton0–3Burnley
- 14 Aug 2021Burnley1–2Brighton
- 6 Feb 2021Burnley1–1Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.97 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 2.52 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 45% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 61% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 23% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Burnley | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.58 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.84 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 9.58 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 18/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 12/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.23 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.65 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 13/31 | 71% 22/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 6/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Burnley | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.20 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.40 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.78
Red cards0.14league 0.13
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.0league 21.5
Penalties0.19league 0.22
Home wins48%league 42%
Burnley5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D20 Sep 25H · Nottingham Forest1–11
- D2 Apr 24H · Wolves1–10
- L30 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–23
- D4 Mar 23A · Blackpool0–01
- L12 Aug 22A · Watford0–11
Brighton4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L8 Feb 26H · Crystal Palace0–11
- D7 Jan 26A · Manchester City1–16
- D21 Jan 23A · Leicester2–21
- L30 Aug 22A · Fulham1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley31 games · scored 33 · conceded 61
2
11
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
15
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
10
14
76-90
Brighton31 games · scored 41 · conceded 37
6
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
8
31-45
6
4
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
8
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
4
0-15
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
