Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were slight favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 61). Chelsea usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Burnley had 13.9 days of rest, Chelsea 13.7 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days13.9 · 13.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Burnley27%
Draw25%
Chelsea48%
Burnley28%
Draw26%
Chelsea46%
Burnley27%
Draw25%
Chelsea48%
Burnley21%
Draw23%
Chelsea56%
Burnley28%
Draw26%
Chelsea46%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 108
Team strength
Burnley
Chelsea
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
27
AttackIn forecast
77
25
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyChelsea
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
2.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
73%
Scored inContext
91%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
8.18
ShotsContext
14.36
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.64
39%
On target shareContext
39%
4.73
Shots in the boxContext
9.45
56%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.33
17.45
Shots allowedContext
9.45
5.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
5.00
BlocksContext
2.80
4.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
71%
Save rateContext
68%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
350
PassesContext
533
273
Accurate passesContext
463
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.91
FoulsContext
11.55
9.91
Fouls sufferedContext
12.73
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
2.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.60
ShotsContext
14.30
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
41%
On target shareContext
39%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
57%
Box shareContext
65%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
17.60
Shots allowedContext
8.30
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
5.40
BlocksContext
2.67
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.71
73%
Save rateContext
63%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
361
PassesContext
522
282
Accurate passesContext
453
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.10
FoulsContext
13.40
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Chelsea
Rest13.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.7Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 583 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
8L. Ugochukwu
11J. Anthony
19Z. Flemming
17L. Tchaouna
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
23T. Chalobah
4T. Adarabioyo
24R. James
17Andrey Santos
8E. Fernández
11J. Gittens
20João Pedro
7Pedro Neto
9L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Chelsea
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Chelsea+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Chelsea · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | L 2–3 A | W 5–1 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Burnley wins2 draws4 Chelsea wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 30 Mar 2024Chelsea2–2Burnley
- 7 Oct 2023Burnley1–4Chelsea
- 5 Mar 2022Burnley0–4Chelsea
- 6 Nov 2021Chelsea1–1Burnley
- 31 Jan 2021Chelsea2–0Burnley
- 31 Oct 2020Burnley0–3Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 2.91 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 73% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Burnley | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.73 | 6.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.55 | 4.09 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 10.54 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 91% 10/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.27 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 2.91 | 4.63 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 9% 1/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Burnley | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.67 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.50 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.62
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls21.5league 22.0
Penalties0.15league 0.18
Home wins49%league 53%
Burnley4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Nov 23H · Crystal Palace0–20
- W3 Oct 23A · Luton2–12
- W11 Dec 22A · QPR3–02
- D13 Sep 22A · Preston1–10
Chelsea10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- L20 Sep 25A · Manchester United1–26
- W15 Dec 24H · Brentford2–12
- W28 Sep 24H · Brighton4–23
- L8 Apr 23A · Wolves0–15
- W15 Jan 23H · Crystal Palace1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley11 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Chelsea11 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
