Burnley vs Everton – 27 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 19th · 11 pts · 17 played LLLLD

0–0Full time

Everton 10th · 24 pts · 17 played LWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 54). Burnley had 7 days of rest, Everton 6.8 and had to travel 65 km.

Away travel65 kmRest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Burnley36%

Draw27%

Everton37%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.40

Burnley35%

Draw27%

Everton37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Burnley36%

Draw27%

Everton38%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.38

Burnley29%

Draw26%

Everton45%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.57

Burnley36%

Draw27%

Everton37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.38

Over 2.5 52% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 134

Team strength

Burnley

Everton

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

27 AttackIn forecast 61

25 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Everton

1.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

2.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

71% Scored inContext 65%

12% Clean sheetsContext 35%

8.47 ShotsContext 10.29

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.88

38% On target shareContext 28%

4.94 Shots in the boxContext 6.94

55% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.92 OffsidesContext 1.91

15.47 Shots allowedContext 13.18

5.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

4.47 BlocksContext 4.53

3.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.81

67% Save rateContext 66%

41% PossessionIn forecast 43%

369 PassesContext 377

287 Accurate passesContext 299

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.88 FoulsContext 10.41

9.41 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

1.47 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

2.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.80 ShotsContext 9.20

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.40

42% On target shareContext 26%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

53% Box shareContext 68%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.20 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.25 BlocksContext 3.80

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

63% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 41%

406 PassesContext 369

319 Accurate passesContext 294

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.90 FoulsContext 10.50

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km687 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel65 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	65 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	687 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1M. Dúbravka(G)

12B. Humphreys 18H. Ekdal 29J. Laurent

23Lucas Pires 24J. Cullen 8L. Ugochukwu 2K. Walker

7J. Bruun Larsen 27A. Broja 10M. Edwards

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 42T. Iroegbunam

7D. McNeil 24C. Alcaraz 20T. Dibling

9Beto

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Everton-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 0.88points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-5
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 1.25

Everton · Away 1.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-4
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Everton
Bournemouth	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Fulham	L 2–3 H	W 2–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	L 1–4 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
West Ham	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 3–2 A
Leeds	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–5 A	L 0–2 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Liverpool	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 A	W 1–0 A
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Points	11 of 48 · 0.69 per game	21 of 48 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Burnley wins1 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

6 Apr 2024Everton1–0Burnley
16 Dec 2023Burnley0–2Everton
6 Apr 2022Burnley3–2Everton
13 Sep 2021Everton3–1Burnley
13 Mar 2021Everton1–2Burnley
5 Dec 2020Burnley1–1Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.12	1.06
Conceded per game	2.00	1.18
Match goals	3.12	2.24	2.76
Over 1.5	88%	71%
Over 2.5	53%	35%	52%
Over 3.5	35%	12%
Both teams scored	59%	35%	57%
Clean sheets	12%	35%
Failed to score	29%	35%
Games	17	17

	Burnley	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.30
Match goals	3.10	2.20	2.76
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	20%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.65	4.41
Corners conceded	6.29	4.88
Match total	9.94	9.29	9.85
Over 8.5	59% 10/17	59% 10/17
Over 9.5	53% 9/17	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	41% 7/17	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	1.59	2.12
Opponent cards	1.29	1.82
Match total	2.88	3.94	3.87
Over 3.5	41% 7/17	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	18% 3/17	47% 8/17

	Burnley	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.00
Corners conceded	5.70	5.50
Match total	9.80	10.50	9.85
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.80
Opponent cards	1.30	1.60
Match total	2.80	3.40	3.87
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 134 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.72

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.7

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins43%league 48%

Burnley6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.7 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L11 Aug 23H · Manchester City0–31
L22 May 22H · Newcastle1–21
W30 Apr 22A · Watford2–12
L2 Apr 22H · Manchester City0–21
D5 Feb 22H · Watford0–01

Everton15 with this referee

Record2-2-11 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

L29 Nov 25H · Newcastle1–40
L26 Oct 25H · Tottenham0–32
D14 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–03
D5 Oct 24H · Newcastle0–01
L14 Sep 24A · Aston Villa2–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.