Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were slight favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 54). Burnley had 3.2 days of rest, Newcastle 4 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days3.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Burnley28%
Draw25%
Newcastle46%
Burnley29%
Draw27%
Newcastle44%
Burnley29%
Draw26%
Newcastle46%
Burnley22%
Draw24%
Newcastle54%
Burnley29%
Draw26%
Newcastle45%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 134
Team strength
Burnley
Newcastle
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
27
AttackIn forecast
61
25
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyNewcastle
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
67%
Scored inContext
72%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
8.89
ShotsContext
12.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.28
34%
On target shareContext
35%
5.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.72
55%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.93
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.44
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.38
BlocksContext
3.67
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
69%
Save rateContext
72%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
375
PassesContext
449
291
Accurate passesContext
373
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.78
FoulsContext
10.47
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.61
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.80
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
34%
On target shareContext
41%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
56%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.25
BlocksContext
3.89
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
423
PassesContext
454
333
Accurate passesContext
385
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.70
FoulsContext
8.88
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km687 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Newcastle
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel136 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 4Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 687 km | 342 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
29J. Laurent
23Lucas Pires
16Florentino
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
17L. Tchaouna
27A. Broja
10M. Edwards
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
3L. Hall
5F. Schär
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
8S. Tonali
39Bruno Guimarães
10A. Gordon
9Y. Wissa
11H. Barnes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Newcastle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Newcastle+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.11
Newcastle · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 0–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Fulham | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| West Ham | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | W 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Burnley wins0 draws7 Newcastle wins
Goals per game0.71 – 2.29
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 6 Dec 2025Newcastle2–1Burnley
- 4 May 2024Burnley1–4Newcastle
- 30 Sep 2023Newcastle2–0Burnley
- 22 May 2022Burnley1–2Newcastle
- 4 Dec 2021Newcastle1–0Burnley
- 11 Apr 2021Burnley1–2Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.56 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 61% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Burnley | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.83 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 10/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 2.83 | 3.88 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 7/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 3/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Burnley | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 13.60 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.00 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 134 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.72
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 21.5
Penalties0.24league 0.19
Home wins46%league 48%
Burnley3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L27 Sep 25A · Manchester City1–53
- D18 Sep 23A · Nottingham Forest1–14
- L27 Dec 20A · Leeds0–13
Newcastle14 with this referee
Record8-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Nov 25A · West Ham1–32
- D21 Sep 25A · Bournemouth0–01
- W7 Apr 25A · Leicester3–00
- W1 Sep 24H · Tottenham2–14
- L15 May 24A · Manchester United2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley18 games · scored 19 · conceded 34
1
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
9
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
10
76-90
Newcastle18 games · scored 23 · conceded 23
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
10
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
9
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
