Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cagliari27.5%fair odds 3.64
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.59
Bologna44.7%fair odds 2.24
Expected goals1.07 – 1.43total 2.49
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cagliari ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cagliari goals, columns Bologna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.55
- 0–111.1%8.97
- 1–29.0%11.15
- 0–08.9%11.18
- 0–28.4%11.87
- 1–08.1%12.27
- 2–16.7%14.93
- 2–24.8%20.93
- 2–04.7%21.30
- 1–34.3%23.44
Winning margin
3.1%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 31.78
7.6%
Cagliari by 2
fair 13.21
16.8%
Cagliari by 1
fair 5.96
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.59
22.7%
Bologna by 1
fair 4.41
13.6%
Bologna by 2
fair 7.36
8.4%
Bologna by 3+
fair 11.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Cagliari goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Bologna goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 27.5% | 28.6% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Bologna win | 44.7% | 44.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 50.6% | -5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.5% | 54.7% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.07 | 1.17 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.43 | 1.52 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cagliari win27.5%3.64
- Draw27.9%3.59
- Bologna win44.7%2.24
- Double chance Cagliari or draw55.3%1.81
- Double chance Cagliari or Bologna72.1%1.39
- Double chance Bologna or draw72.5%1.38
- Draw no bet Cagliari38.1%2.62
- Draw no bet Bologna61.9%1.62
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.571.8%1.39
- Over 2.545.4%2.20
- Over 3.524.1%4.16
- Over 4.510.8%9.28
- Under 1.528.2%3.54
- Under 2.554.6%1.83
- Under 3.575.9%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes50.5%1.98
- No49.5%2.02
- Yes and over 2.537.2%2.69
- Cagliari win and yes12.4%8.05
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- Bologna win and yes19.1%5.23
Team goals
- Cagliari over 0.565.5%1.53
- Cagliari over 1.528.8%3.47
- Cagliari over 2.59.3%10.79
- Bologna over 0.576.0%1.32
- Bologna over 1.541.7%2.40
- Bologna over 2.517.3%5.78
- Cagliari clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Bologna clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Cagliari win to nil15.1%6.64
- Bologna win to nil25.5%3.92
Handicap
- Cagliari −1.510.7%9.33
- Cagliari −2.53.1%31.78
- Bologna +1.589.3%1.12
- Bologna +2.596.9%1.03
- Bologna −1.522.0%4.55
- Cagliari +1.578.0%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65
Favourite won49.2%
Avg chance given to result40.2%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right47.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 37.5% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 44.2% | 34.8% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 63.9% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 72.8% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 45 of 65 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6211 | 0.5989 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 39.8% |
| Favourite won | 46.7% | 48.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 45 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.