Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 29). Bologna usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Cagliari had 14.1 days of rest, Bologna 14 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Cagliari27%
Draw28%
Bologna45%
Cagliari29%
Draw27%
Bologna45%
Cagliari27%
Draw28%
Bologna45%
Cagliari22%
Draw26%
Bologna52%
Cagliari29%
Draw27%
Bologna45%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 44
Team strength
Cagliari
Bologna
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
31
AttackIn forecast
35
31
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariBologna
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
67%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.83
ShotsContext
13.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
27%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
67%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.60
BlocksContext
3.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
88%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
342
PassesContext
429
275
Accurate passesContext
355
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.83
FoulsContext
13.50
14.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
13.80
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
30%
On target shareContext
29%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
65%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.10
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
5.11
BlocksContext
2.86
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
74%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
339
PassesContext
425
271
Accurate passesContext
352
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.80
FoulsContext
14.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
28G. Zappa
17M. Felici
90M. Folorunsho
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
14T. Heggem
41M. Vitík
2E. Holm
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
28N. Cambiaghi
21J. Odgaard
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bologna · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Cagliari wins0 draws4 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 2 Mar 2025Bologna2–1Cagliari
- 29 Oct 2024Cagliari0–2Bologna
- 14 Jan 2024Cagliari2–1Bologna
- 2 Sep 2023Bologna2–1Cagliari
- 11 Jan 2022Cagliari2–1Bologna
- 1 Nov 2021Bologna2–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Cagliari | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.13 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 38% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 38% | |
| Games | 6 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.84 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 4.84 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cagliari | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.40 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.00 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.69
Red cards0.16league 0.12
Cards 5+43%league 35%
Fouls25.8league 26.4
Penalties0.25league 0.23
Home wins43%league 38%
Cagliari4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Feb 25A · Atalanta0–01
- D26 Nov 23H · Monza1–11
- L12 Dec 21A · Inter0–42
- W17 Oct 21H · Sampdoria3–14
Bologna2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D7 Dec 24A · Juventus2–24
- D23 Jan 23H · Cremonese1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari6 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna6 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
