Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 26). Cagliari had 5.1 days of rest, Juventus 5 and had to travel 660 km.
Away travel660 kmRest days5.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari18%
Draw25%
Juventus57%
Cagliari19%
Draw24%
Juventus58%
Cagliari19%
Draw25%
Juventus57%
Cagliari14%
Draw22%
Juventus64%
Cagliari18%
Draw23%
Juventus58%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 102
Team strength
Cagliari
Juventus
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
31
AttackIn forecast
57
31
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariJuventus
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
65%
Scored inContext
80%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
15.60
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.37
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
58%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.94
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
3.67
BlocksContext
2.89
3.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
73%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
383
PassesContext
514
312
Accurate passesContext
447
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.93
14.75
FoulsContext
12.70
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.35
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.17
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.90
ShotsContext
16.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
34%
On target shareContext
44%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
58%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.70
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.10
BlocksContext
3.44
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
71%
Save rateContext
86%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
395
PassesContext
524
324
Accurate passesContext
457
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.01
15.30
FoulsContext
12.60
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,472 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Juventus
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel660 km471 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Jan | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 660 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,472 km | 471 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
4L. Mazzitelli
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
8T. Koopmeiners
5M. Locatelli
10K. Yıldız
21F. Miretti
22W. McKennie
30J. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Juventus+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.44
Juventus · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 2–2 A | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Como | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Verona | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 57 · 1.00 per game | 36 of 57 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Cagliari wins2 draws5 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 29 Nov 2025Juventus2–1Cagliari
- 23 Feb 2025Cagliari0–1Juventus
- 6 Oct 2024Juventus1–1Cagliari
- 19 Apr 2024Cagliari2–2Juventus
- 11 Nov 2023Juventus2–1Cagliari
- 9 Apr 2022Cagliari1–2Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 20% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Cagliari | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 9.17 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 8/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 4/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 3/18 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.55 | 3.80 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cagliari | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.11 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.40 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 3.83
Red cards0.27league 0.17
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 25.7
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins34%league 37%
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D6 Jan 24A · Lecce1–11
- W16 Apr 22H · Sassuolo1–02
- L1 Nov 21A · Bologna0–23
Juventus9 with this referee
Record6-3-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W14 Dec 25A · Bologna1–01
- D10 May 25A · Lazio1–15
- W18 Jan 25H · AC Milan2–00
- W22 Dec 24A · Monza2–11
- D15 Dec 23A · Genoa1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari20 games · scored 21 · conceded 30
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Juventus20 games · scored 32 · conceded 16
5
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
9
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
8
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
