Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Casa Pia had 19.8 days of rest, Alverca 21 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days19.8 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Casa Pia42%
Draw28%
Alverca30%
Casa Pia43%
Draw27%
Alverca30%
Casa Pia42%
Draw28%
Alverca30%
Casa Pia35%
Draw28%
Alverca36%
Casa Pia43%
Draw27%
Alverca30%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
Casa Pia
Alverca
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
13
AttackIn forecast
38
25
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaAlverca
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
2.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
64%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.82
ShotsContext
8.82
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
38%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
54%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.73
Shots allowedContext
13.18
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.82
BlocksContext
3.64
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
56%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
325
PassesContext
355
250
Accurate passesContext
286
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.82
FoulsContext
13.00
15.36
Fouls sufferedContext
14.55
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
9.10
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
36%
On target shareContext
39%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
55%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.60
BlocksContext
3.60
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
54%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
331
PassesContext
355
255
Accurate passesContext
286
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.90
FoulsContext
13.80
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest19.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 21Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
18André Geraldes
6José Fonte
27Kaique Rocha
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
7K. Nsona
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
91Sandro Lima
18Lincoln
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.40
Alverca · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | D 2–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.18 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 2.82 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 55% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Casa Pia | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.80 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.86 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.82 | 2.91 | |
| Match total | 5.82 | 5.46 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 91% 10/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 73% 8/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Casa Pia | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 7.84 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 5.60 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.58league 5.17
Red cards0.48league 0.27
Cards 5+81%league 65%
Fouls31.5league 27.6
Penalties0.26league 0.49
Home wins42%league 36%
Casa Pia3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25A · Arouca2–07
- L24 Aug 24H · Santa Clara0–24
- W8 Jan 24A · Moreirense4–12
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D25 Aug 25A · Estrela2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alverca11 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
6
0-15
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
