Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 16). Casa Pia had 5.9 days of rest, Estrela 6.9 and had to travel 70 km.
Away travel70 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Casa Pia52%
Draw26%
Estrela22%
Casa Pia53%
Draw25%
Estrela22%
Casa Pia52%
Draw26%
Estrela22%
Casa Pia44%
Draw28%
Estrela28%
Casa Pia53%
Draw25%
Estrela22%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 49
Team strength
Casa Pia
Estrela
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
13
AttackIn forecast
24
25
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaEstrela
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
56%
Scored inContext
44%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.89
ShotsContext
11.67
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
31%
On target shareContext
29%
4.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
54%
Box shareContext
49%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.11
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.56
BlocksContext
3.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
60%
Save rateContext
86%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
325
PassesContext
342
249
Accurate passesContext
274
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.11
FoulsContext
12.78
15.67
Fouls sufferedContext
16.56
3.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
60%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.60
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
31%
On target shareContext
28%
4.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
56%
Box shareContext
48%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.70
BlocksContext
3.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
59%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
323
PassesContext
345
248
Accurate passesContext
276
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.82
15.00
FoulsContext
12.70
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.60
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel70 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 70 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
27Kaique Rocha
18André Geraldes
74Renato Nhaga
24I. Mohamed
72Gaizka Larrazabal
7K. Nsona
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
79A. Chernev
30Luan Patrick
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
6Oumar Ngom
19Paulo Moreira
17Jefferson Encada
18Jorge Meireles
98Kikas
99A. Marcus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Estrela · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Casa Pia wins0 draws2 Estrela wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 9 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0Estrela
- 31 Aug 2024Estrela0–1Casa Pia
- 8 Mar 2024Estrela3–1Casa Pia
- 8 Oct 2023Casa Pia0–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 1.89 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Casa Pia | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 1.89 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 8.51 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.22 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 5.89 | 6.00 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Casa Pia | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.34 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.80 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.47league 5.18
Red cards0.35league 0.27
Cards 5+67%league 63%
Fouls29.0league 27.8
Penalties0.47league 0.46
Home wins51%league 37%
Casa Pia8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds2
- D21 Sep 25H · Famalicao1–11
- L9 Mar 25H · Sporting CP1–34
- W9 Feb 25H · Estrela1–04
- L2 Dec 24A · FC Porto0–20
- L27 May 23A · GIL Vicente0–12
Estrela6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W27 Sep 25H · AVS3–03
- W6 Apr 25A · Nacional1–02
- L9 Feb 25A · Casa Pia0–14
- L24 Aug 24A · Benfica0–13
- L2 Mar 24A · SC Braga0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia9 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
0-15
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
