Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Casa Pia. Casa Pia had 5.9 days of rest, Moreirense 8 and had to travel 233 km.
Away travel233 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Casa Pia41%
Draw30%
Moreirense29%
Casa Pia38%
Draw27%
Moreirense35%
Casa Pia41%
Draw30%
Moreirense29%
Casa Pia35%
Draw30%
Moreirense35%
Casa Pia43%
Draw28%
Moreirense29%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Casa Pia
Moreirense
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
13
AttackIn forecast
17
25
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaMoreirense
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
57%
Scored inContext
74%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.17
ShotsContext
8.70
3.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.41
34%
On target shareContext
38%
4.82
Shots in the boxContext
5.04
57%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.46
OffsidesContext
1.76
14.09
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.59
4.22
BlocksContext
3.45
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
60%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
305
PassesContext
415
229
Accurate passesContext
345
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.91
FoulsContext
14.00
13.96
Fouls sufferedContext
15.09
3.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.66
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.10
ShotsContext
8.20
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
35%
On target shareContext
38%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.40
62%
Box shareContext
55%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
5.00
BlocksContext
3.60
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
64%
Save rateContext
63%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
265
PassesContext
441
189
Accurate passesContext
369
71%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.64
16.10
FoulsContext
13.50
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel233 km68 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Feb | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 233 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 68 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
21Rodri Alonso
8M. Stjepanović
11Alan
10Kiko Bondoso
9Luís Semedo
2Diogo Travassos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.91
Moreirense · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Arouca | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nacional | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| FC Porto | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | D 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 22 of 66 · 1.00 per game | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Casa Pia wins0 draws3 Moreirense wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 27 Sep 2025Moreirense2–1Casa Pia
- 15 Feb 2025Moreirense3–2Casa Pia
- 14 Sep 2024Casa Pia3–1Moreirense
- 12 May 2024Casa Pia0–1Moreirense
- 8 Jan 2024Moreirense1–4Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.87 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.70 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 61% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.10 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.76 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 8.38 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 5% 1/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.13 | 2.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.61 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 5.74 | 4.70 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 87% 20/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 74% 17/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.34 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 5.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.21league 4.84
Red cards0.14league 0.27
Cards 5+79%league 59%
Fouls25.8league 26.9
Penalties0.36league 0.45
Home wins57%league 42%
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Apr 25A · Sporting CP1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia22 games · scored 22 · conceded 38
4
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Moreirense23 games · scored 29 · conceded 33
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
7
9
46-60
7
5
61-75
5
9
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
