Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Casa Pia. Casa Pia had 5.9 days of rest, Moreirense 14 and had to travel.
Rest days5.9 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
Casa Pia40%
Draw27%
Moreirense33%
Casa Pia39%
Draw26%
Moreirense35%
Casa Pia40%
Draw27%
Moreirense33%
Casa Pia33%
Draw27%
Moreirense40%
Casa Pia41%
Draw26%
Moreirense33%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)
No weather data yet
RefereeL. M. Branco Godinho
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Casa Pia
Moreirense
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
13
AttackIn forecast
17
25
DefenceIn forecast
27
17
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaMoreirense
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
3.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
0.36
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
0%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.33
ShotsContext
6.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
24%
On target shareContext
33%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
2.50
60%
Box shareContext
44%
0%
ConversionContext
17%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
14.67
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
44%
Save rateContext
40%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
402
PassesContext
412
340
Accurate passesContext
331
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.39
Team ratingContext
6.27
12.00
FoulsContext
12.00
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.60
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
40%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
8.10
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
4.30
63%
Box shareContext
52%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.20
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.11
BlocksContext
3.60
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
67%
Save rateContext
58%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
319
PassesContext
427
243
Accurate passesContext
353
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.50
FoulsContext
12.10
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
LLL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 0 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Aug | 14Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 103 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
31André Gomes(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
4João Goulart
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
10Rochinha
70João Rêgo
19Kevin Prieto
20A. Jatta
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
65Guilherme Liberato
23N. John
11Landerson
20João Veloso
7Manuel Mendonça
9A. Duville-Parsemain
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 7.00
Moreirense · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Casa Pia wins1 draws3 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 1 Mar 2026Casa Pia1–1Moreirense
- 27 Sep 2025Moreirense2–1Casa Pia
- 15 Feb 2025Moreirense3–2Casa Pia
- 14 Sep 2024Casa Pia3–1Moreirense
- 12 May 2024Casa Pia0–1Moreirense
- 8 Jan 2024Moreirense1–4Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.00 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 6.34 | 7.00 | 8.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 6.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Casa Pia | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.45 | 8.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · L. M. Branco Godinho 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.86
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+20%league 31%
Fouls22.8league 25.1
Penalties0.60league 0.31
Home wins80%league 41%
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
MoreirenseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia3 games · scored 0 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Moreirense2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
