Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 20). Casa Pia had 5.9 days of rest, Nacional 6.9 and had to travel 1,031 km.
Away travel1,031 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Casa Pia49%
Draw27%
Nacional24%
Casa Pia50%
Draw26%
Nacional24%
Casa Pia49%
Draw27%
Nacional24%
Casa Pia42%
Draw28%
Nacional30%
Casa Pia50%
Draw26%
Nacional24%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 80
Team strength
Casa Pia
Nacional
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
13
AttackIn forecast
15
25
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaNacional
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.00
ShotsContext
10.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
29%
On target shareContext
37%
4.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
47%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
18.33
Shots allowedContext
19.00
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.67
BlocksContext
6.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
60%
Save rateContext
60%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
284
PassesContext
227
212
Accurate passesContext
163
75%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.67
FoulsContext
18.33
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
5.90
ShotsContext
13.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
30%
3.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
53%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.22
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
66%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
325
PassesContext
303
249
Accurate passesContext
234
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.30
FoulsContext
14.10
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,031 km2,410 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 1,031 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,410 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
2D. Tchamba
6José Fonte
4João Goulart
12F. Benaissa-Yahia
24I. Mohamed
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
9Max Svensson
29J. Livolant
Nacional
Confirmed XI
37Lucas França(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
7Witi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Nacional · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins0 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Mar 2025Nacional3–1Casa Pia
- 25 Oct 2024Casa Pia1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Casa Pia | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 7.67 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 15.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 6.66 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Casa Pia | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 11.55 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.30 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 4.92
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 58%
Fouls26.3league 28.2
Penalties0.26league 0.35
Home wins45%league 42%
Casa Pia4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L15 Feb 25A · Moreirense2–31
- D23 Sep 23H · Guimaraes0–03
- W6 Mar 23H · Pacos Ferreira2–13
- L9 Oct 22H · Vizela0–13
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D23 Dec 24A · Guimaraes2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Nacional3 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
