Casa Pia vs Rio Ave – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Casa Pia 16th · 29 pts · 33 played DLLLW

1–1Full time

Rio Ave 13th · 35 pts · 33 played WDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rio Ave. Casa Pia had 4.9 days of rest, Rio Ave 4.9 and had to travel 225 km.

Away travel225 kmRest days4.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Casa Pia36%

Draw31%

Rio Ave33%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.06

Casa Pia42%

Draw27%

Rio Ave31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Casa Pia36%

Draw31%

Rio Ave33%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.06

Casa Pia30%

Draw30%

Rio Ave40%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.19

Casa Pia38%

Draw29%

Rio Ave33%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.16

Over 2.5 37% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.56
Matches 57

Team strength

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

13 AttackIn forecast 18

25 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

0.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

55% Scored inContext 61%

21% Clean sheetsContext 18%

8.30 ShotsContext 10.09

2.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

33% On target shareContext 38%

4.94 Shots in the boxContext 6.57

58% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.42 Shots allowedContext 14.79

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.94

4.00 BlocksContext 3.91

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.34

62% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

294 PassesContext 376

216 Accurate passesContext 310

74% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.80

15.55 FoulsContext 12.33

13.48 Fouls sufferedContext 13.97

2.85 Yellow cardsContext 2.42

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.60 ShotsContext 12.70

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

31% On target shareContext 35%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 9%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.38 BlocksContext 2.90

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

70% Save rateContext 71%

37% PossessionIn forecast 48%

268 PassesContext 372

187 Accurate passesContext 300

70% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.80

17.00 FoulsContext 11.50

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel225 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	225 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	83.9	85.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 3Kaly 4João Goulart

75Pedro Rosas 80L. Ofori 42S. Pérez 19Kevin Prieto

11João Marques 10Dailon Livramento 72Gaizka Larrazabal

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99E. van der Gouw(G)

77O. Richards 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 20João Tomé

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 11Jalen Blesa 7Diogo Bezerra

9Tamble Monteiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.88points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 2-8-6
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.56

Rio Ave · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-6
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	Rio Ave
Guimaraes	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Tondela	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Santa Clara	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Benfica	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Estrela	L 0–4 AL 3–5 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Estoril	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 AL 0–4 H
Moreirense	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Famalicao	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Arouca	W 3–2 HW 2–0 A	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A
Nacional	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H
FC Porto	W 2–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H
AVS	D 3–3 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H	L 1–4 HL 0–4 A
Points	29 of 96 · 0.91 per game	32 of 96 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Casa Pia wins3 draws2 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game1.14 – 1.29 Over 2.543% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 14%

4 Jan 2026Rio Ave3–1Casa Pia
29 Mar 2025Casa Pia2–1Rio Ave
2 Nov 2024Rio Ave2–2Casa Pia
11 Feb 2024Rio Ave1–0Casa Pia
2 Sep 2023Casa Pia1–1Rio Ave
16 Apr 2023Rio Ave1–1Casa Pia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	0.91	1.03
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	2.61	2.73	2.18
Over 1.5	76%	82%
Over 2.5	45%	61%	37%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	45%	52%	45%
Clean sheets	21%	18%
Failed to score	45%	39%
Games	33	33

	Casa Pia	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.20
Match goals	1.80	2.30	2.18
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	37%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	3.84	4.31
Corners conceded	5.81	6.31
Match total	9.65	10.62	9.38
Over 8.5	61% 19/31	72% 23/32
Over 9.5	48% 15/31	63% 20/32
Over 10.5	32% 10/31	53% 17/32
Cards
Cards	2.94	2.61
Opponent cards	2.52	2.33
Match total	5.46	4.94	5.06
Over 3.5	82% 27/33	64% 21/33
Over 4.5	70% 23/33	55% 18/33

	Casa Pia	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	5.50
Corners conceded	5.90	5.20
Match total	10.20	10.70	9.38
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.10
Opponent cards	2.30	1.90
Match total	4.80	5.00	5.06
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.44league 4.79

Red cards0.30league 0.24

Cards 5+68%league 57%

Fouls29.4league 26.7

Penalties0.56league 0.43

Home wins47%league 41%

Casa Pia10 with this referee

Record2-1-7 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 6 Reds2

L20 Mar 26A · Estrela0–42
L1 Nov 25H · Estrela3–52
D21 Sep 25H · Famalicao1–11
L9 Mar 25H · Sporting CP1–34
W9 Feb 25H · Estrela1–04

Rio Ave5 with this referee

Record1-3-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 1

W9 Mar 26A · Tondela1–05
D8 Nov 25A · Alverca1–10
D27 Apr 24A · Vizela1–12
L21 May 23A · Pacos Ferreira1–33
D5 Sep 22A · Chaves1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.