Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Casa Pia36.0%fair odds 2.77
Draw30.7%fair odds 3.26
Rio Ave33.3%fair odds 3.00
Expected goals1.12 – 1.06total 2.18
Likeliest score1–114.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Casa Pia ↓ · Rio Ave → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Casa Pia goals, columns Rio Ave goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–114.1%7.08
- 0–012.0%8.36
- 1–011.9%8.41
- 0–111.3%8.87
- 2–17.5%13.32
- 1–27.1%14.00
- 2–07.1%14.18
- 0–26.4%15.67
- 2–24.0%25.01
- 3–12.8%35.68
Winning margin
4.7%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 21.32
10.3%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 9.70
21.0%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 4.75
30.7%
Draw
fair 3.26
20.0%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 5.00
9.3%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 10.72
4.0%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 25.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
12%0
23%1
28%2
20%3
11%4
7%5+
Casa Pia goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
Rio Ave goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 36.0% | 37.5% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 30.7% | 29.0% | +1.6 pp |
| Rio Ave win | 33.3% | 33.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 37.3% | 43.0% | -5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.8% | 49.4% | -4.6 pp |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 1.12 | 1.24 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.06 | 1.16 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Casa Pia win36.0%2.77
- Draw30.7%3.26
- Rio Ave win33.3%3.00
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw66.7%1.50
- Double chance Casa Pia or Rio Ave69.3%1.44
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw64.0%1.56
- Draw no bet Casa Pia52.0%1.92
- Draw no bet Rio Ave48.0%2.08
Goals
- Over 0.588.0%1.14
- Over 1.564.9%1.54
- Over 2.537.3%2.68
- Over 3.517.8%5.63
- Over 4.57.1%14.12
- Under 1.535.1%2.85
- Under 2.562.7%1.60
- Under 3.582.2%1.22
Both teams to score
- Yes44.8%2.23
- No55.2%1.81
- Yes and over 2.530.7%3.26
- Casa Pia win and yes13.5%7.39
- Draw and yes18.7%5.35
- Rio Ave win and yes12.6%7.93
Team goals
- Casa Pia over 0.567.4%1.48
- Casa Pia over 1.530.8%3.25
- Casa Pia over 2.510.4%9.66
- Rio Ave over 0.565.5%1.53
- Rio Ave over 1.528.8%3.47
- Rio Ave over 2.59.3%10.80
- Casa Pia clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Rio Ave clean sheet32.6%3.06
- Casa Pia win to nil22.5%4.44
- Rio Ave win to nil20.7%4.84
Handicap
- Casa Pia −1.515.0%6.67
- Casa Pia −2.54.7%21.32
- Rio Ave +1.585.0%1.18
- Rio Ave +2.595.3%1.05
- Rio Ave −1.513.3%7.52
- Casa Pia +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored299
Favourite won56.9%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right57.2%
BTTS called right52.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 55 | 37.6% | 43.6% |
| 40–50% | 97 | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| 50–60% | 60 | 54.6% | 56.7% |
| 60–70% | 44 | 64.9% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 33 | 75.2% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 235 of 299 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5322 | 0.5243 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.4% | 59.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 233 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Estrela 0–0 Famalicao27·28·46
- ✗GIL Vicente 1–3 Arouca46·27·27
- ✓Santa Clara 2–0 Nacional50·28·22
- ✓Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CP16·22·62
- ✗Guimaraes 0–1 Casa Pia57·25·18
- ✓Tondela 2–0 Moreirense39·30·31
- ✗Benfica 2–2 SC Braga61·23·16
- ✗Alverca 1–1 Estoril47·28·25
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 299 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.