Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 21). SC Braga usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Casa Pia had 5 days of rest, SC Braga 3.9 and had to travel 250 km.
Away travel250 kmRest days5 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Casa Pia17%
Draw25%
SC Braga57%
Casa Pia18%
Draw23%
SC Braga58%
Casa Pia17%
Draw25%
SC Braga57%
Casa Pia13%
Draw23%
SC Braga64%
Casa Pia18%
Draw25%
SC Braga57%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 17
Team strength
Casa Pia
SC Braga
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
13
AttackIn forecast
42
25
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaSC Braga
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.97
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
55%
Scored inContext
90%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
8.45
ShotsContext
11.79
2.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
33%
On target shareContext
41%
4.96
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
57%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.79
Shots allowedContext
8.59
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.07
4.00
BlocksContext
2.56
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.23
60%
Save rateContext
70%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
294
PassesContext
598
217
Accurate passesContext
525
74%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.88
15.52
FoulsContext
11.38
13.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
2.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.80
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
46%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
59%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
21%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.30
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.33
BlocksContext
3.13
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
71%
Save rateContext
66%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
246
PassesContext
587
168
Accurate passesContext
516
68%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.86
16.20
FoulsContext
13.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel250 km1,018 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 3.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 250 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,018 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
18André Geraldes
4João Goulart
75Pedro Rosas
80L. Ofori
24I. Mohamed
72Gaizka Larrazabal
10Dailon Livramento
29J. Livolant
99Claudio
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
17Gabriel Moscardo
15Paulo Oliveira
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
34D. Tıknaz
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-8-4
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.64
SC Braga · Away
1.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | L 0–4 AL 3–5 H | D 3–3 A |
| Estoril | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Arouca | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Nacional | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 84 · 0.93 per game | 50 of 84 · 1.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Casa Pia wins0 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.29 – 2.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 26 Oct 2025SC Braga4–0Casa Pia
- 10 May 2025Casa Pia2–1SC Braga
- 29 Dec 2024SC Braga1–2Casa Pia
- 5 May 2024SC Braga4–3Casa Pia
- 30 Dec 2023Casa Pia1–3SC Braga
- 21 Apr 2023Casa Pia0–1SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 1.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.97 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 69% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 10% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Casa Pia | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.74 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.04 | 3.12 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.68 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.03 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 2.55 | |
| Match total | 5.24 | 4.58 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 24/29 | 72% 21/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 20/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Casa Pia | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 8.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.60 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.29league 4.80
Red cards0.12league 0.24
Cards 5+82%league 57%
Fouls26.6league 26.8
Penalties0.47league 0.43
Home wins59%league 41%
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D1 Mar 26H · Moreirense1–12
SC Braga2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 Nov 25A · FC Porto1–22
- D31 Aug 25A · Rio Ave2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia28 games · scored 25 · conceded 47
5
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
8
61-75
4
10
76-90
SC Braga29 games · scored 57 · conceded 29
10
2
0-15
13
7
16-30
10
8
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
4
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
